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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Russell 2000 Index as of Jun 30, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   26 31 34 24 28 30 27 29 28 24 24
Exceeded High   23 29 32 20 26 26 23 26 21 20 20
Scenario Percentage   88% 94% 94% 83% 93% 87% 85% 90% 75% 83% 83%
Avg Max Increase   9.05% 7.50% 7.43% 6.85% 6.52% 6.58% 7.26% 5.93% 6.33% 6.02% 3.26%
Max Increase   31.70% 20.61% 21.03% 18.63% 18.68% 21.06% 17.32% 15.48% 18.80% 15.99% 9.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 18 17 16 20 19 14 18 21 20 17
Avg Max Decline   -1.17% -1.74% -2.15% -0.58% -1.58% -1.82% -2.04% -1.64% -1.57% -1.80% -1.12%
Max Decline   -5.68% -8.72% -7.37% -3.42% -5.77% -5.59% -9.88% -5.97% -6.84% -9.57% -4.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 10 8 7 7 10 6 11 6 8 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes Yes    
Action     No   Yes       Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 14 11 21 17 15 18 16 17 21 21
Penetrated Low   12 9 7 13 13 8 12 11 11 14 13
Scenario Percentage   63% 64% 64% 62% 76% 53% 67% 69% 65% 67% 62%
Avg Max Decline   7.70% 5.93% 9.59% 10.35% 10.52% 6.51% 5.45% 8.50% 10.05% 11.20% 7.90%
Max Decline   30.93% 15.33% 16.97% 40.14% 34.56% 18.09% 12.38% 27.36% 23.46% 22.94% 20.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 16 14 14 15 18 15 16 13 18 21
Avg Max Increase   -1.27% -1.45% -2.25% -1.62% -1.28% -1.43% -2.17% -1.35% -1.00% -0.95% -1.69%
Max Increase   -4.95% -4.14% -5.21% -6.31% -4.29% -5.10% -4.89% -2.99% -3.98% -3.53% -3.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 10 8 7 5 10 6 10 5 5 6
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes        
Action   No   Yes   Yes Yes No        
High 2259.25 2289.50 2466.50 2442.60 2322.30 2326.95 2173.55 2048.15 2114.95 2189.20    
Low 2058.70 2170.60 2200.30 2194.90 2158.65 2126.10 1973.10 1733.00 1960.50 2043.60    
Close/Last 2229.95 2196.65 2434.75 2230.15 2287.70 2163.05 2011.90 1964.10 2066.30 2175.05    

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