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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   36 36 38 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   15 13 24 26 18 17 26 17 25 22 17
Exceeded High   12 12 22 18 15 13 19 15 19 15 12
Scenario Percentage   80% 92% 92% 69% 83% 76% 73% 88% 76% 68% 71%
Avg Max Increase   14.86% 13.33% 8.14% 7.62% 10.71% 6.81% 8.05% 11.04% 9.64% 13.77% 7.33%
Max Increase   76.31% 48.86% 29.18% 18.07% 24.60% 14.50% 24.15% 44.96% 45.94% 64.59% 23.17%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 16 14 14 19 15 15 15 13 12 15
Avg Max Decline   -3.18% -2.45% -1.70% -1.72% -2.10% -1.97% -1.71% -2.28% -2.11% -1.42% -0.59%
Max Decline   -8.30% -8.90% -7.25% -7.72% -10.63% -6.25% -8.62% -8.19% -5.84% -5.53% -3.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 11 6 5 7 4 9 5 9 4 3
2019 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action       Yes Yes   No   Yes Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   36 36 38 41 43 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 23 14 15 25 28 18 28 20 23 28
Penetrated Low   16 13 7 11 20 19 14 18 16 13 19
Scenario Percentage   76% 57% 50% 73% 80% 68% 78% 64% 80% 57% 68%
Avg Max Decline   10.34% 9.43% 7.94% 7.15% 7.26% 8.37% 8.48% 8.16% 10.76% 12.76% 6.12%
Max Decline   32.76% 24.54% 19.23% 14.59% 15.54% 25.45% 19.61% 23.77% 43.52% 48.87% 24.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 17 14 19 21 18 20 13 21 15 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.68% -1.34% -2.59% -2.76% -3.54% -2.10% -3.26% -1.59% -3.23% -3.22% -1.40%
Max Increase   -7.05% -6.32% -11.02% -16.71% -14.39% -5.40% -7.34% -5.75% -14.00% -12.42% -10.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 8 8 9 11 12 10 5 12 10 2
2019 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes       Yes
Action   Yes Yes     Yes   No       Yes
High 860.0 891.2 827.9 841.5 888.0 886.5 925.5 896.9 844.9 889.7 944.2 1000.8
Low 831.5 815.0 798.9 800.0 794.1 820.3 853.4 793.7 795.5 808.3 835.2 880.0
Close/Last 855.9 815.0 811.6 834.7 884.9 859.5 897.3 799.6 841.1 878.9 931.7 883.4

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