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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   36 36 36 38 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 11 19 19 16 24 23 20 28 25 20
Exceeded High   12 11 13 12 15 19 19 19 25 18 16
Scenario Percentage   71% 100% 68% 63% 94% 79% 83% 95% 89% 72% 80%
Avg Max Increase   5.64% 10.28% 10.51% 9.49% 8.01% 8.87% 10.14% 13.38% 8.73% 8.85% 8.21%
Max Increase   14.45% 44.15% 45.59% 24.59% 23.88% 17.26% 29.92% 45.18% 32.89% 22.55% 14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 16 13 11 16 19 18 16 15 16 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.08% -1.93% -1.40% -0.28% -1.35% -2.26% -4.03% -3.45% -2.46% -2.73% -1.45%
Max Decline   -7.04% -7.77% -5.66% -2.28% -3.81% -10.60% -11.07% -9.16% -8.76% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 8 7 2 5 5 14 12 6 6 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes     Yes   Yes
Action   No       Yes No     Yes   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   36 36 36 38 42 43 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 25 17 19 26 19 22 25 16 20 25
Penetrated Low   15 17 14 13 20 14 16 12 11 14 13
Scenario Percentage   79% 68% 82% 68% 77% 74% 73% 48% 69% 70% 52%
Avg Max Decline   8.49% 7.05% 8.67% 9.26% 8.67% 7.25% 9.27% 9.08% 11.16% 8.44% 3.72%
Max Decline   19.41% 14.87% 14.91% 20.32% 26.64% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 41.57% 35.01% 10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 14 18 18 17 15 20 16 11 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.58% -1.96% -3.31% -2.00% -3.76% -2.85% -2.38% -1.93% -2.85% -2.16% -0.97%
Max Increase   -6.06% -9.37% -12.61% -9.49% -12.67% -5.52% -7.84% -6.68% -11.78% -10.49% -2.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 9 11 10 13 10 7 9 7 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes  
Action     Yes Yes Yes     Yes No   Yes  
High 1049.6 1135.7 1087.3 1069.3 1011.2 1038.7 1073.1 1022.8 975.4 1045.6 1063.8 1036.3
Low 938.6 973.0 981.9 958.1 930.9 920.9 962.6 938.4 907.4 909.4 936.7 946.5
Close/Last 979.6 1075.0 1035.4 1009.8 951.8 1000.0 1008.8 963.8 910.5 1043.7 937.9 1009.7

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