MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	11	19	19	17	23	24	21	29	27	18
Exceeded High		13	11	14	12	16	18	20	21	26	19	15
Scenario Percentage		72%	100%	74%	63%	94%	78%	83%	100%	90%	70%	83%
Avg Max Increase		5.77%	10.28%	10.15%	12.84%	9.59%	8.90%	13.56%	15.06%	9.76%	9.30%	8.14%
Max Increase		14.45%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	17.26%	78.46%	45.18%	32.89%	22.55%	14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	13	11	15	18	18	17	15	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.54%	-1.93%	-1.76%	-0.45%	-1.13%	-1.80%	-3.91%	-3.13%	-2.26%	-2.43%	-1.44%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-6.49%	-2.57%	-3.81%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-9.16%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	8	3	4	5	14	12	5	6	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	25	17	19	25	20	21	24	15	18	27
Penetrated Low		14	16	14	12	19	15	15	12	10	12	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	64%	82%	63%	76%	75%	71%	50%	67%	67%	48%
Avg Max Decline		8.35%	7.53%	8.42%	9.76%	8.70%	7.03%	9.50%	9.08%	11.61%	9.23%	3.72%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	14.91%	20.32%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	41.57%	35.01%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	19	19	17	14	19	16	12	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.46%	-1.32%	-3.47%	-2.15%	-3.76%	-2.67%	-2.46%	-1.93%	-3.12%	-1.57%	-0.97%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-6.25%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-12.67%	-5.52%	-7.84%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-2.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	11	10	12	9	6	9	7	6	3
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Not Yet
High	1030.7	993.7	1040.0	894.9	963.8	935.6	971.4	1066.5	1087.6	1117.0	1046.7	1012.0
Low	916.0	931.0	892.0	814.0	833.9	807.4	860.9	910.5	975.4	996.9	903.9	930.9
Close/Last	948.7	975.5	903.4	894.9	833.9	860.9	927.5	1040.2	1082.9	1021.1	955.5	994.1