MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	11	19	19	17	23	24	21	30	28	17
Exceeded High		12	11	14	12	16	18	20	21	27	20	14
Scenario Percentage		71%	100%	74%	63%	94%	78%	83%	100%	90%	71%	82%
Avg Max Increase		5.70%	10.28%	10.15%	12.84%	8.89%	8.44%	14.56%	16.17%	9.87%	11.68%	11.16%
Max Increase		14.45%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	45.18%	32.89%	72.01%	61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	16	13	11	15	18	19	17	15	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.71%	-1.93%	-1.76%	-0.45%	-1.23%	-2.08%	-3.66%	-3.08%	-2.31%	-2.42%	-1.48%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-6.49%	-2.57%	-3.81%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-9.16%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	8	3	4	6	13	12	5	5	3
2022 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action							Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	25	17	19	25	20	21	24	14	17	28
Penetrated Low		15	16	14	11	19	15	15	12	9	12	14
Scenario Percentage		79%	64%	82%	58%	76%	75%	71%	50%	64%	71%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.19%	7.35%	8.10%	10.36%	8.70%	7.03%	9.50%	9.08%	11.62%	9.24%	4.19%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	14.91%	20.32%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	41.57%	35.01%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	20	21	17	14	19	16	11	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.33%	-1.45%	-3.01%	-2.38%	-3.76%	-2.67%	-2.46%	-1.93%	-3.19%	-1.57%	-1.19%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-6.25%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-12.67%	-5.52%	-7.84%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-3.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	11	11	12	9	6	9	8	6	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes				Yes
High	1259.6	1275.6	1213.4	1147.0	1069.0	1030.0	1081.1	1113.4	989.9	1064.6	1132.0	1197.0
Low	1167.6	1180.1	1036.5	1040.0	961.0	897.1	944.1	924.7	886.1	919.5	1004.0	954.0
Close/Last	1215.7	1193.3	1079.5	1054.3	1019.2	963.7	1021.7	929.2	966.2	1020.8	1038.7	992.5