MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	12	19	19	18	22	24	20	30	28	17
Exceeded High		13	12	14	12	16	17	20	20	27	20	14
Scenario Percentage		72%	100%	74%	63%	89%	77%	83%	100%	90%	71%	82%
Avg Max Increase		6.26%	9.99%	10.15%	12.84%	8.89%	8.41%	14.56%	16.13%	9.43%	11.02%	11.18%
Max Increase		14.45%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	45.18%	32.89%	72.01%	61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	13	11	15	18	19	16	15	15	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.54%	-1.86%	-1.76%	-0.45%	-1.23%	-2.20%	-3.66%	-2.99%	-2.26%	-2.49%	-1.48%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-6.49%	-2.57%	-3.81%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-9.16%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	8	3	4	6	13	12	5	6	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Not Yet	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	24	17	19	24	21	21	25	14	17	28
Penetrated Low		14	15	14	10	19	16	15	12	9	12	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	63%	82%	53%	79%	76%	71%	48%	64%	71%	46%
Avg Max Decline		7.83%	7.11%	7.75%	10.20%	8.70%	7.00%	9.58%	9.08%	11.62%	9.26%	3.80%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	12.45%	20.32%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	41.57%	35.01%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	20	21	17	14	20	16	11	15	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.38%	-1.13%	-2.89%	-2.52%	-3.76%	-2.77%	-2.30%	-1.93%	-3.19%	-1.57%	-1.20%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-5.03%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-12.67%	-5.52%	-7.84%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-3.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	11	12	12	9	6	9	8	6	5
2021 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			No			No	Yes
High	818.1	920.0	901.2	1001.0	1038.0	998.3	927.2	987.8	1096.5	1163.4	1348.2	1240.4
Low	717.7	765.4	813.0	838.6	917.9	835.7	848.8	843.1	932.3	1011.0	1084.8	1110.0
Close/Last	812.2	874.6	859.3	925.9	953.3	915.8	852.4	970.5	1079.2	1079.2	1185.3	1188.5