MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	12	19	17	19	21	23	19	30	28	16
Exceeded High		13	12	12	11	17	16	19	18	27	20	13
Scenario Percentage		72%	100%	63%	65%	89%	76%	83%	95%	90%	71%	81%
Avg Max Increase		6.61%	10.25%	9.69%	13.36%	8.84%	8.59%	14.28%	16.14%	9.43%	8.53%	7.97%
Max Increase		18.91%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	45.18%	32.89%	22.55%	14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	15	11	15	17	19	17	15	15	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.20%	-1.66%	-1.78%	-0.49%	-1.66%	-1.90%	-3.65%	-2.83%	-2.26%	-2.49%	-1.57%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-6.49%	-2.57%	-8.59%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-9.16%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	8	8	3	5	6	13	12	5	6	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		36	36	36	38	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	24	17	21	23	22	22	26	15	17	28
Penetrated Low		15	16	14	12	19	17	17	13	9	11	13
Scenario Percentage		83%	67%	82%	57%	83%	77%	77%	50%	60%	65%	46%
Avg Max Decline		8.34%	7.40%	7.75%	10.75%	9.11%	7.65%	10.45%	9.63%	7.40%	6.88%	3.77%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	12.45%	20.32%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	19.47%	13.88%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	20	19	17	15	20	16	11	11	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.43%	-1.03%	-2.89%	-2.08%	-3.36%	-3.37%	-2.33%	-1.92%	-2.58%	-1.17%	-0.79%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-5.03%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-12.67%	-10.54%	-7.84%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	11	11	11	10	7	8	6	6	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes			Not Yet
High	960.2	943.3	927.6	863.9	848.6	844.8	858.6	885.6	821.4	836.5	879.9	877.1
Low	922.8	900.0	860.0	810.0	767.0	780.0	816.0	804.2	785.0	787.9	780.9	809.6
Close/Last	922.8	927.3	868.6	855.2	795.6	826.5	847.3	804.8	800.6	824.7	875.2	848.9