MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	13	19	15	20	18	24	22	28	28	17
Exceeded High		14	12	11	10	17	14	20	19	26	20	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	92%	58%	67%	85%	78%	83%	86%	93%	71%	76%
Avg Max Increase		7.72%	10.11%	9.66%	14.47%	8.71%	9.19%	13.66%	19.95%	11.32%	11.01%	11.70%
Max Increase		19.15%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	77.88%	51.68%	72.01%	61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	17	12	15	18	18	18	14	14	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.56%	-1.72%	-2.68%	-0.56%	-1.72%	-2.20%	-3.06%	-2.56%	-2.14%	-2.38%	-1.35%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-7.77%	-7.19%	-2.57%	-8.59%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-8.21%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	8	3	5	6	12	11	5	6	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes							Yes
Action		Yes	Yes							No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	22	16	22	22	25	21	23	17	17	27
Penetrated Low		14	13	13	14	18	19	15	12	9	10	12
Scenario Percentage		82%	59%	81%	64%	82%	76%	71%	52%	53%	59%	44%
Avg Max Decline		8.30%	6.98%	8.06%	11.08%	9.46%	7.23%	12.48%	10.23%	7.40%	6.76%	3.91%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	15.33%	20.82%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	19.47%	13.88%	10.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	15	20	21	17	16	22	17	11	14	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.98%	-1.36%	-2.84%	-2.17%	-3.23%	-3.23%	-2.19%	-1.70%	-2.58%	-1.30%	-1.11%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-5.03%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-11.35%	-10.54%	-7.79%	-6.68%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-3.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	9	11	14	11	9	7	9	6	7	4
2015 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	1470.4	1493.8	1483.3	1518.1	1484.2	1416.4	1298.0	1244.8	1257.7	1290.3	1258.7	1196.8
Low	1403.6	1430.6	1434.2	1467.4	1421.7	1301.0	1193.8	1179.0	1176.3	1187.7	1155.0	1086.7
Close/Last	1431.1	1453.3	1483.3	1467.4	1428.0	1302.1	1236.4	1213.0	1209.5	1238.2	1185.6	1142.6