MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	13	18	16	21	19	26	22	28	28	18
Exceeded High		14	12	10	11	18	16	21	19	26	20	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	92%	56%	69%	86%	84%	81%	86%	93%	71%	72%
Avg Max Increase		7.90%	10.32%	9.79%	14.17%	8.87%	9.28%	13.38%	19.73%	11.24%	8.58%	8.00%
Max Increase		19.15%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	77.88%	51.68%	22.55%	14.83%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	16	14	15	17	18	18	14	14	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.46%	-2.71%	-2.94%	-0.54%	-2.04%	-1.99%	-2.92%	-2.75%	-2.19%	-2.38%	-1.35%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-11.01%	-7.19%	-2.57%	-8.59%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-8.21%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	9	6	5	6	12	12	5	5	3
2013 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		35	35	35	37	42	43	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	22	17	21	21	24	19	23	17	17	26
Penetrated Low		14	14	13	13	16	18	13	11	9	10	13
Scenario Percentage		82%	64%	76%	62%	76%	75%	68%	48%	53%	59%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.57%	6.71%	7.63%	10.67%	9.78%	7.36%	13.85%	10.75%	7.40%	7.63%	4.69%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	15.33%	20.82%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	19.47%	17.30%	14.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	19	23	17	15	22	16	11	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.73%	-1.66%	-2.75%	-2.40%	-3.36%	-3.31%	-2.07%	-1.25%	-2.58%	-1.57%	-0.73%
Max Increase		-6.06%	-5.50%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-11.35%	-10.54%	-7.79%	-5.93%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	10	11	15	10	8	7	7	6	7	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes		No		Yes	Yes
High	1667.3	1578.2	1515.0	1498.3	1565.0	1719.6	1733.4	1629.5	1651.5	1706.8	1744.5	1615.0
Low	1552.7	1411.5	1396.3	1393.1	1392.7	1556.6	1535.0	1538.0	1519.1	1539.0	1581.0	1549.8
Close/Last	1578.1	1428.5	1459.7	1423.1	1543.2	1672.6	1580.3	1608.0	1542.4	1675.4	1583.5	1571.2