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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   33 33 33 35 40 41 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher   18 12 17 14 20 18 25 22 26 27 18
Exceeded High   14 11 9 10 17 15 20 19 24 20 13
Scenario Percentage   78% 92% 53% 71% 85% 83% 80% 86% 92% 74% 72%
Avg Max Increase   7.90% 10.61% 10.04% 14.36% 9.18% 9.62% 13.74% 19.73% 11.61% 11.06% 11.67%
Max Increase   19.15% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 34.53% 14.05% 78.46% 77.88% 51.68% 72.01% 61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 17 15 15 16 17 19 18 14 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.46% -2.54% -2.64% -0.68% -2.10% -1.94% -2.79% -2.75% -2.35% -2.38% -1.35%
Max Decline   -7.97% -11.01% -7.19% -2.57% -8.59% -9.88% -11.07% -8.21% -8.76% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 7 9 6 6 7 11 12 5 5 3
2011 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   33 33 33 35 40 41 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower   15 21 16 21 20 23 18 21 17 16 24
Penetrated Low   12 14 12 13 15 17 12 11 9 9 11
Scenario Percentage   80% 67% 75% 62% 75% 74% 67% 52% 53% 56% 46%
Avg Max Decline   9.06% 6.71% 8.09% 10.67% 10.05% 7.56% 13.83% 10.75% 7.40% 7.30% 4.12%
Max Decline   19.41% 14.87% 15.33% 20.82% 26.64% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 19.47% 17.30% 14.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 16 19 23 18 15 22 16 11 14 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.63% -1.66% -3.00% -2.40% -3.57% -3.24% -2.18% -1.25% -2.58% -1.52% -0.95%
Max Increase   -5.93% -5.50% -12.61% -9.49% -11.35% -10.54% -7.79% -5.93% -11.78% -8.00% -3.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 10 12 15 11 6 8 7 6 7 4
2011 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes       Yes
Action   No Yes   No     No       Not Yet
High 1756.9 1752.9 1606.5 1586.3 1612.4 1664.6 1732.0 1813.2 1780.9 1851.1 1869.0 1865.5
Low 1681.1 1498.0 1524.5 1508.4 1499.4 1544.4 1671.0 1636.3 1665.0 1710.6 1770.5 1658.0
Close/Last 1749.9 1556.4 1542.3 1586.3 1531.6 1661.2 1711.0 1671.8 1778.2 1800.9 1809.2 1779.3

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