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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jun 01, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 33 33 33 35 40 41 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Higher 18 12 17 14 20 18 25 22 26 27 18
Exceeded High 14 11 9 10 17 15 20 19 24 20 13
Scenario Percentage 78% 92% 53% 71% 85% 83% 80% 86% 92% 74% 72%
Avg Max Increase 7.90% 10.61% 10.04% 14.36% 9.18% 9.62% 13.74% 19.68% 11.61% 11.05% 11.66%
Max Increase 19.15% 44.15% 45.59% 42.20% 34.53% 14.05% 78.46% 77.88% 51.68% 72.01% 61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase 18 17 15 15 16 17 19 18 14 14 16
Avg Max Decline -2.46% -2.54% -2.64% -0.68% -2.10% -1.94% -2.76% -2.75% -2.34% -2.35% -1.35%
Max Decline -7.97% -11.01% -7.19% -2.57% -8.59% -9.88% -11.07% -8.21% -8.76% -9.84% -6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 7 9 6 6 7 11 12 5 5 3
2011 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years 33 33 33 35 40 41 43 43 43 43 43
Closed Lower 15 21 16 21 20 23 18 21 17 16 24
Penetrated Low 12 14 12 13 15 17 12 11 9 9 15
Scenario Percentage 80% 67% 75% 62% 75% 74% 67% 52% 53% 56% 62%
Avg Max Decline 9.06% 6.71% 8.09% 10.67% 10.05% 7.56% 13.83% 10.75% 7.40% 7.30% 18.34%
Max Decline 19.41% 14.87% 15.33% 20.82% 26.64% 17.72% 32.80% 25.33% 19.47% 17.30% 62.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline 17 16 19 23 18 15 22 16 11 14 14
Avg Max Increase -2.63% -1.66% -3.00% -2.40% -3.57% -3.24% -2.18% -1.25% -2.58% -1.52% -4.04%
Max Increase -5.93% -5.50% -12.61% -9.49% -11.35% -10.54% -7.79% -5.93% -11.78% -8.00% -14.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase 11 10 12 15 11 6 8 7 6 7 -88
2011 Contract Condition Yes Yes   Yes     Yes       Yes
Action No Yes   No     No       Not Yet
High 1752.9 1606.5 1586.3 1612.4 1664.6 1732.0 1813.2 1780.9 1851.1 1869.0 1865.5
Low 1498.0 1524.5 1508.4 1499.4 1544.4 1671.0 1636.3 1665.0 1710.6 1770.5 1658.0
Close/Last 1556.4 1542.3 1586.3 1531.6 1661.2 1711.0 1671.8 1778.2 1800.9 1809.2 1779.3

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