MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Platinum(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		32	32	32	34	39	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		18	12	16	14	19	17	25	21	25	26	18
Exceeded High		14	11	8	10	16	14	20	18	23	20	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	92%	50%	71%	84%	82%	80%	86%	92%	77%	72%
Avg Max Increase		7.90%	10.61%	10.68%	14.36%	9.18%	9.88%	13.74%	20.55%	11.95%	11.07%	11.70%
Max Increase		19.15%	44.15%	45.59%	42.20%	34.53%	14.05%	78.46%	77.88%	51.68%	72.01%	61.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	17	13	15	16	18	19	19	15	14	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.46%	-2.54%	-2.28%	-0.68%	-2.27%	-2.02%	-2.79%	-2.69%	-2.44%	-2.38%	-1.35%
Max Decline		-7.97%	-11.01%	-7.19%	-2.57%	-8.59%	-9.88%	-11.07%	-8.21%	-8.76%	-9.84%	-6.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	7	6	6	7	11	12	5	5	3
2010 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		32	32	32	34	39	40	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		14	20	16	20	20	23	17	21	17	16	23
Penetrated Low		12	13	12	13	15	17	12	11	9	9	11
Scenario Percentage		86%	65%	75%	65%	75%	74%	71%	52%	53%	56%	48%
Avg Max Decline		9.06%	7.01%	8.09%	10.67%	10.05%	7.56%	13.83%	10.75%	7.40%	7.30%	4.12%
Max Decline		19.41%	14.87%	15.33%	20.82%	26.64%	17.72%	32.80%	25.33%	19.47%	17.30%	14.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	15	19	23	18	15	22	16	11	14	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.63%	-1.44%	-3.00%	-2.40%	-3.57%	-3.24%	-2.18%	-1.25%	-2.58%	-1.52%	-0.95%
Max Increase		-5.93%	-5.50%	-12.61%	-9.49%	-11.35%	-10.54%	-7.79%	-5.93%	-11.78%	-8.00%	-3.33%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	12	15	11	6	8	7	6	7	4
2010 Contract Condition
Action
High				1224.1	1304.1	1361.4	1387.0	1489.3	1515.0	1654.0	1594.0	1646.6
Low				1198.9	1235.5	1238.0	1288.4	1329.4	1387.7	1471.0	1452.0	1540.0
Close/Last				1224.1	1255.2	1307.8	1330.5	1462.2	1471.0	1506.0	1539.9	1639.8