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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Platinum(NYMEX) as of Jul 07, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   38 38 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 17 16 23 13 24 23 17 24 23 19
Exceeded High   13 14 10 16 12 18 16 15 19 18 15
Scenario Percentage   62% 82% 63% 70% 92% 75% 70% 88% 79% 78% 79%
Avg Max Increase   8.21% 10.56% 7.35% 8.15% 11.27% 10.17% 9.05% 8.52% 8.81% 10.13% 7.47%
Max Increase   17.83% 19.78% 15.99% 25.18% 44.34% 45.95% 26.77% 25.03% 15.85% 29.15% 28.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 20 15 14 15 13 14 16 18 19 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.71% -2.46% -1.38% -1.47% -2.22% -1.68% -1.22% -1.89% -2.60% -4.40% -1.41%
Max Decline   -7.12% -11.64% -6.66% -7.42% -8.04% -5.68% -5.21% -5.50% -10.77% -11.25% -5.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 8 4 8 5 10 4 8 5 13 5
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes    
Action     Yes Yes No       Yes No    
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   38 38 40 41 44 44 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   17 21 24 18 31 20 22 28 21 22 26
Penetrated Low   12 17 18 15 22 16 15 21 15 16 10
Scenario Percentage   71% 81% 75% 83% 71% 80% 68% 75% 71% 73% 38%
Avg Max Decline   8.83% 6.58% 8.19% 8.80% 7.47% 11.72% 12.24% 8.56% 7.09% 8.28% 6.51%
Max Decline   32.12% 15.43% 24.87% 19.16% 23.23% 43.40% 49.85% 26.87% 18.76% 27.16% 18.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline   13 18 20 19 13 20 18 17 15 19 15
Avg Max Increase   -0.74% -3.93% -2.92% -2.85% -2.15% -3.44% -2.59% -3.93% -3.17% -2.45% -0.73%
Max Increase   -2.97% -13.58% -9.80% -6.24% -9.59% -13.19% -11.64% -12.95% -6.48% -7.70% -3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 12 15 10 8 15 11 11 14 7 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action   Yes       Yes Yes Yes     Yes Not Yet
High 1016.8 955.0 981.6 1040.7 1125.3 1076.7 1060.4 1000.1 1030.8 1064.6 1014.2 964.8
Low 910.7 901.6 899.3 924.3 962.9 971.5 946.5 922.6 912.4 953.0 928.3 893.5
Close/Last 955.0 910.9 939.5 970.2 1065.0 1025.4 998.3 942.6 991.1 999.6 954.1 894.0

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Newsflash

Think again! Fed cuts and MRCI seasonal trends could unlock profits in Treasuries. Challenge yourself to explore the TLT ETF and futures. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33123477/lower-interest-rates-in-the-3rd-quarter-opportunities-for-traders-and-consumers

Historical research from Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) highlights a seasonal tendency for Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall in July. This pattern holds across the 5-year, 15-year, and 30-year seasonal patterns, implying that the fundamentals during this period have been relatively consistent, driven by market dynamics and investor behavior. July often sees reduced trading volumes due to summer slowdowns, which can amplify price movements in bonds. Investors may rebalance their portfolios in the third quarter, as the end of September marks the Federal government's year-end, which is expected to increase demand for Treasuries.

This seasonal trend offers traders a potential edge. For instance, MRCI data shows the 10-year Treasury note often rallies in July, with prices rising as yields dip. This could be a short-term opportunity for those positioned in Treasury futures or ETFs. However, seasonality is not a guarantee; traders must combine it with other analyses, such as technical indicators or macroeconomic trends, to make informed decisions.