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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Sep 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   39 39 39 41 43 43 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   27 23 25 23 17 16 27 18 26 23 23
Exceeded High   24 15 20 14 12 15 23 16 22 18 18
Scenario Percentage   89% 65% 80% 61% 71% 94% 85% 89% 85% 78% 78%
Avg Max Increase   17.48% 13.54% 10.15% 12.06% 9.89% 13.54% 11.75% 12.79% 11.98% 15.21% 11.27%
Max Increase   53.95% 31.10% 25.15% 34.77% 22.74% 32.52% 33.42% 41.40% 35.19% 44.44% 22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 18 18 17 17 17 14 14 14 11 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.69% -1.93% -1.44% -3.67% -4.76% -1.28% -3.45% -1.93% -3.27% -2.22% -0.50%
Max Decline   -8.33% -11.25% -5.29% -11.27% -14.96% -10.16% -9.56% -4.49% -15.38% -13.14% -3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 7 4 12 11 7 9 5 9 5 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes   Yes Yes    
Action       No     Yes   Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   39 39 39 41 43 43 44 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   12 16 13 18 26 27 17 26 19 22 22
Penetrated Low   8 9 9 17 17 20 15 19 14 13 16
Scenario Percentage   67% 56% 69% 94% 65% 74% 88% 73% 74% 59% 73%
Avg Max Decline   6.85% 6.68% 9.50% 10.86% 11.69% 9.62% 15.44% 14.44% 13.24% 12.92% 7.93%
Max Decline   19.89% 11.95% 18.68% 33.11% 26.56% 22.89% 48.95% 46.20% 22.18% 26.53% 20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 13 10 16 17 15 19 18 16 12 11
Avg Max Increase   -3.74% -1.83% -4.96% -1.55% -2.39% -2.85% -1.92% -3.55% -4.69% -5.18% -1.69%
Max Increase   -12.92% -6.88% -15.44% -10.14% -8.54% -11.32% -12.37% -13.52% -16.67% -19.42% -8.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 9 12 8 8 7 7 11 11 7 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes        
Action   Yes No   Yes Yes   Yes        
High 1269.10 1110.10 1015.00 1105.20 1102.50 1052.00 989.50 1063.50 993.00 1126.50    
Low 968.00 944.40 887.80 962.30 968.30 922.60 879.50 875.00 820.50 896.50    
Close/Last 1137.10 1016.90 962.50 1036.90 968.30 922.60 978.50 931.20 962.80 1000.20    

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