MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		39	39	39	41	43	43	44	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	23	24	22	17	16	27	18	26	24	23
Exceeded High		25	15	19	14	12	15	23	16	23	18	18
Scenario Percentage		89%	65%	79%	64%	71%	94%	85%	89%	88%	75%	78%
Avg Max Increase		17.14%	13.54%	10.07%	12.06%	9.89%	13.54%	11.76%	12.79%	12.98%	15.28%	11.34%
Max Increase		53.95%	31.10%	25.15%	34.77%	22.74%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	44.44%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	17	17	17	14	14	15	12	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.83%	-1.93%	-1.31%	-3.67%	-4.76%	-1.28%	-3.22%	-1.93%	-3.14%	-2.22%	-0.61%
Max Decline		-8.33%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-11.27%	-14.96%	-10.16%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-15.38%	-13.14%	-4.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	7	4	12	11	7	9	5	9	5	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No			Yes		Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		39	39	39	41	43	43	44	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		11	16	14	19	26	27	17	26	19	21	22
Penetrated Low		7	9	10	17	17	20	15	19	14	12	15
Scenario Percentage		64%	56%	71%	89%	65%	74%	88%	73%	74%	57%	68%
Avg Max Decline		4.99%	7.75%	9.92%	10.86%	11.51%	9.61%	15.44%	13.93%	13.24%	12.55%	7.94%
Max Decline		9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	22.89%	48.95%	46.20%	22.18%	26.53%	20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	12	16	16	15	19	17	16	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-4.21%	-2.44%	-4.34%	-1.55%	-2.06%	-2.51%	-1.92%	-3.26%	-4.69%	-5.43%	-1.87%
Max Increase		-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-10.14%	-8.54%	-11.32%	-12.37%	-13.52%	-16.67%	-19.42%	-8.68%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	9	12	8	8	6	7	10	11	8	3
2022 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	No		Yes		Yes
High	2006.80	2378.70	2502.90	3250.00	2462.60	2248.80	2052.20	2186.50	2305.00	2280.00	2360.00	2113.50
Low	1559.70	1833.90	2201.80	2114.00	2127.00	1896.30	1782.50	1837.00	1961.50	1943.00	1808.50	1759.50
Close/Last	1920.30	2359.00	2502.90	2255.10	2317.60	2013.60	1923.80	2146.50	2078.90	2182.20	1831.70	1845.00