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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   37 38 38 40 42 42 43 44 44 44 44
Closed Higher   27 21 23 20 17 16 26 18 25 24 23
Exceeded High   24 13 18 13 12 15 22 16 22 18 19
Scenario Percentage   89% 62% 78% 65% 71% 94% 85% 89% 88% 75% 83%
Avg Max Increase   16.28% 11.13% 9.84% 12.92% 9.89% 13.54% 11.96% 12.79% 13.20% 16.41% 11.68%
Max Increase   53.95% 31.10% 25.15% 34.77% 22.74% 32.52% 33.42% 41.40% 35.19% 50.48% 22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 17 19 18 17 17 14 14 16 13 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.62% -2.27% -1.39% -4.02% -4.76% -1.28% -3.07% -1.93% -3.26% -2.35% -0.61%
Max Decline   -8.33% -11.25% -5.29% -11.27% -14.96% -10.16% -9.56% -4.49% -15.38% -13.14% -4.08%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 8 4 12 11 7 10 5 9 5 4
2020 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes No     Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   37 38 38 40 42 42 43 44 44 44 44
Closed Lower   10 17 14 20 25 26 17 25 18 20 21
Penetrated Low   7 10 10 18 16 19 15 18 13 11 14
Scenario Percentage   70% 59% 71% 90% 64% 73% 88% 72% 72% 55% 67%
Avg Max Decline   4.99% 8.17% 9.60% 11.64% 11.70% 9.15% 13.63% 12.62% 13.44% 12.75% 7.86%
Max Decline   9.42% 15.89% 18.68% 33.11% 26.56% 22.89% 48.95% 46.20% 22.18% 26.53% 20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 15 13 15 16 15 18 16 16 12 11
Avg Max Increase   -4.21% -2.25% -3.71% -1.49% -2.08% -2.45% -1.80% -2.75% -3.76% -4.53% -1.38%
Max Increase   -12.92% -7.05% -15.44% -10.14% -8.54% -11.32% -12.37% -8.66% -8.93% -19.42% -3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 8 10 7 9 6 7 9 8 7 3
2020 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes       Yes  
Action       No Yes   No       Not Yet  
High 1943.00 2346.80 2725.70 2441.70 2180.00 2141.20 2030.20 2411.40 2361.30 2454.60 2493.40 2523.50
Low 1788.50 1907.30 2165.20 1350.00 1815.00 1731.00 1825.00 1900.00 2117.80 2184.80 2182.00 2196.00
Close/Last 1888.20 2191.00 2463.60 2276.20 1939.50 1964.60 1962.50 2157.80 2279.30 2330.50 2217.20 2392.80

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