MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	37	37	39	41	41	42	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		26	20	23	20	16	16	25	17	24	24	22
Exceeded High		23	13	18	13	11	15	21	15	21	18	19
Scenario Percentage		88%	65%	78%	65%	69%	94%	84%	88%	88%	75%	86%
Avg Max Increase		15.92%	11.13%	9.84%	12.92%	8.72%	13.54%	11.88%	13.02%	13.43%	15.84%	11.14%
Max Increase		53.95%	31.10%	25.15%	34.77%	18.77%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	44.44%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	19	18	16	17	14	14	16	10	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.64%	-2.27%	-1.39%	-4.02%	-4.54%	-1.28%	-3.13%	-1.78%	-3.11%	-2.35%	-0.49%
Max Decline		-8.33%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-11.27%	-14.96%	-10.16%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-15.38%	-13.14%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	4	12	12	7	10	4	8	5	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	37	37	39	41	41	42	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		10	17	13	19	25	25	17	25	18	19	21
Penetrated Low		7	10	10	17	16	19	15	18	13	11	14
Scenario Percentage		70%	59%	77%	89%	64%	76%	88%	72%	72%	58%	67%
Avg Max Decline		4.99%	8.17%	9.60%	11.69%	11.70%	9.15%	13.63%	12.62%	13.44%	12.75%	7.86%
Max Decline		9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	22.89%	48.95%	46.20%	22.18%	26.53%	20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	13	16	16	15	18	16	16	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-4.21%	-2.25%	-3.71%	-1.78%	-2.08%	-2.45%	-1.80%	-2.75%	-3.76%	-4.53%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-10.14%	-8.54%	-11.32%	-12.37%	-8.66%	-8.93%	-19.42%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	8	10	8	9	6	7	9	8	7	3
2019 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes
Action				Yes		No		Yes
High	1154.70	1295.50	1491.00	1541.20	1437.40	1368.50	1551.90	1595.90	1543.20	1669.40	1799.20	1828.90
Low	1099.40	1148.50	1265.80	1289.00	1292.70	1276.40	1302.60	1493.70	1379.80	1514.00	1605.00	1644.30
Close/Last	1147.60	1249.90	1471.20	1321.20	1371.90	1328.20	1533.00	1523.40	1539.20	1647.50	1755.60	1815.60