MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		35	36	36	38	40	40	41	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		25	19	23	19	16	15	25	16	23	23	21
Exceeded High		22	12	18	12	11	14	21	14	20	17	18
Scenario Percentage		88%	63%	78%	63%	69%	93%	84%	88%	87%	74%	86%
Avg Max Increase		15.59%	11.66%	9.84%	12.90%	8.72%	14.21%	11.88%	12.74%	13.55%	16.07%	11.31%
Max Increase		53.95%	31.10%	25.15%	34.77%	18.77%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	44.44%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	19	17	16	18	14	13	15	10	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.78%	-2.22%	-1.39%	-3.78%	-4.54%	-1.33%	-3.13%	-1.79%	-3.13%	-2.11%	-0.56%
Max Decline		-8.33%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-11.27%	-14.96%	-10.16%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-15.38%	-13.14%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	4	13	12	8	10	4	8	4	2
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No		No	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		35	36	36	38	40	40	41	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		10	17	12	19	24	25	16	25	18	19	21
Penetrated Low		7	10	9	17	16	19	14	18	13	11	14
Scenario Percentage		70%	59%	75%	89%	67%	76%	88%	72%	72%	58%	67%
Avg Max Decline		4.99%	8.17%	10.29%	11.69%	11.70%	9.15%	13.93%	12.62%	13.44%	12.75%	7.86%
Max Decline		9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	22.89%	48.95%	46.20%	22.18%	26.53%	20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	13	16	16	15	19	16	16	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-4.21%	-2.25%	-3.15%	-1.78%	-2.08%	-2.45%	-1.95%	-2.75%	-3.76%	-4.53%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-10.14%	-8.54%	-11.32%	-12.37%	-8.66%	-8.93%	-19.42%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	8	9	8	9	6	7	9	8	7	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Not Yet
High	1048.10	1090.85	1042.90	979.65	1035.40	986.40	1016.00	957.60	971.80	1085.00	1137.30	1198.00
Low	965.65	1008.85	949.80	932.25	886.70	926.00	923.90	850.60	816.00	942.10	1032.40	1061.10
Close/Last	1045.15	1008.85	1027.50	932.25	951.35	977.10	945.60	928.60	969.90	1072.80	1068.50	1168.60