MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		34	35	35	37	39	39	40	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		25	18	23	18	15	15	25	15	22	23	20
Exceeded High		22	12	18	12	10	14	21	13	19	17	17
Scenario Percentage		88%	67%	78%	67%	67%	93%	84%	87%	86%	74%	85%
Avg Max Increase		15.59%	11.66%	9.84%	12.90%	9.20%	14.21%	11.88%	12.39%	13.65%	16.07%	11.59%
Max Increase		53.95%	31.10%	25.15%	34.77%	18.77%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	44.44%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	19	17	17	18	14	13	15	10	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.78%	-2.22%	-1.39%	-3.78%	-4.92%	-1.33%	-3.13%	-1.71%	-3.10%	-2.11%	-0.58%
Max Decline		-8.33%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-11.27%	-14.96%	-10.16%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-15.38%	-13.14%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	4	13	12	8	10	4	8	4	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		34	35	35	37	39	39	40	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		9	17	11	19	24	24	15	25	18	18	21
Penetrated Low		6	10	8	17	16	18	13	18	13	11	14
Scenario Percentage		67%	59%	73%	89%	67%	75%	87%	72%	72%	61%	67%
Avg Max Decline		4.56%	8.17%	10.96%	11.69%	11.70%	8.90%	14.07%	12.62%	13.44%	12.75%	7.86%
Max Decline		9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	22.89%	48.95%	46.20%	22.18%	26.53%	20.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	15	14	16	16	14	19	16	16	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-4.35%	-2.25%	-3.74%	-1.78%	-2.08%	-2.52%	-2.13%	-2.75%	-3.76%	-4.53%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-10.14%	-8.54%	-11.32%	-12.37%	-8.66%	-8.93%	-19.42%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	10	8	9	6	8	9	8	7	3
2017 Contract Condition						Yes
Action						No
High	755.75	798.65	796.95	814.85	826.60	817.55	876.00	886.65	947.00	997.50	1005.00	1023.95
Low	658.40	712.90	751.60	743.65	771.70	747.40	808.50	821.50	860.80	898.10	904.30	973.25
Close/Last	686.50	756.35	773.55	799.25	826.60	815.15	830.65	877.55	932.25	936.85	979.15	1006.60