MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	26	27	27	29	31	31	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	20	13	18	11	13	12	18	12	16	17	15
Exceeded High	17	8	13	8	8	11	15	10	14	12	12
Scenario Percentage	85%	62%	72%	73%	62%	92%	83%	83%	88%	71%	80%
Avg Max Increase	17.90%	11.44%	10.27%	17.02%	10.42%	13.81%	12.34%	14.08%	14.00%	20.06%	15.36%
Max Increase	53.95%	27.65%	25.15%	34.77%	18.77%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	50.48%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	16	18	19	18	17	14	13	14	12	14
Avg Max Decline	-1.66%	-3.13%	-1.42%	-2.76%	-5.69%	-1.48%	-2.79%	-1.53%	-2.33%	-1.07%	-0.13%
Max Decline	-8.33%	-11.25%	-5.29%	-6.41%	-14.96%	-10.16%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-6.33%	-3.15%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	7	3	15	13	6	12	3	9	1	2
2009 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	26	27	27	29	31	31	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	6	14	8	18	18	19	14	20	16	16	18
Penetrated Low	4	8	6	16	14	14	12	15	11	11	14
Scenario Percentage	67%	57%	75%	89%	78%	74%	86%	75%	69%	69%	78%
Avg Max Decline	5.35%	7.43%	11.49%	11.82%	11.05%	8.70%	13.99%	12.01%	14.17%	12.75%	23.26%
Max Decline	9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	21.01%	48.95%	46.20%	22.18%	26.53%	60.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline	10	15	14	15	15	14	18	16	17	12	14
Avg Max Increase	-4.62%	-1.58%	-3.69%	-1.25%	-2.09%	-1.95%	-2.11%	-2.62%	-3.99%	-4.53%	-3.48%
Max Increase	-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-6.16%	-8.54%	-6.44%	-12.37%	-8.38%	-8.93%	-19.42%	-19.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	7	6	9	5	7	9	8	7	8
2009 Contract Condition				Yes
Action				Yes
High			226.25	244.85	245.00	263.45	267.00	294.50	308.70	341.95	380.00
Low			192.00	218.70	212.00	232.35	226.45	263.45	282.10	290.85	316.00
Close/Last			220.80	220.40	238.70	252.05	265.80	293.50	299.20	323.25	363.55