MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	25	26	26	27	29	29	30	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher	19	12	18	11	11	10	17	11	15	16	14
Exceeded High	16	7	13	8	6	10	14	9	13	11	11
Scenario Percentage	84%	58%	72%	73%	55%	100%	82%	82%	87%	69%	79%
Avg Max Increase	15.86%	12.80%	10.27%	17.02%	10.37%	13.50%	12.07%	13.81%	12.99%	19.27%	15.48%
Max Increase	53.95%	27.65%	25.15%	34.77%	18.77%	32.52%	33.42%	41.40%	35.19%	44.44%	22.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	18	18	19	15	15	14	13	14	11	13
Avg Max Decline	-2.07%	-1.97%	-1.42%	-2.76%	-6.13%	-0.62%	-2.93%	-1.27%	-2.29%	-0.96%	-0.50%
Max Decline	-8.33%	-6.08%	-5.29%	-6.41%	-14.96%	-3.62%	-9.56%	-4.49%	-6.33%	-3.15%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	8	3	15	9	5	11	3	9	1	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	25	26	26	27	29	29	30	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower	6	14	7	16	18	19	13	19	15	15	17
Penetrated Low	4	8	5	14	14	14	11	14	10	10	13
Scenario Percentage	67%	57%	71%	88%	78%	74%	85%	74%	67%	67%	76%
Avg Max Decline	5.35%	7.43%	11.95%	12.98%	11.05%	8.70%	10.81%	9.57%	13.73%	12.04%	23.74%
Max Decline	9.42%	15.89%	18.68%	33.11%	26.56%	21.01%	23.66%	30.77%	22.18%	26.53%	60.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline	10	15	17	17	15	14	17	16	17	12	14
Avg Max Increase	-4.62%	-1.58%	-3.33%	-1.68%	-2.09%	-1.95%	-2.54%	-2.75%	-3.50%	-3.04%	-3.74%
Max Increase	-12.92%	-7.05%	-15.44%	-6.16%	-8.54%	-6.44%	-12.37%	-8.38%	-8.19%	-7.46%	-19.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	6	7	9	5	8	9	9	7	8
2007 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	370.45	374.20	370.50	398.95	391.30	386.55	379.85	375.00	353.00	387.00	389.00
Low	345.90	350.50	347.50	364.70	366.25	370.00	364.00	320.00	324.50	346.95	338.00
Close/Last	355.45	367.60	368.25	385.00	378.75	373.10	371.90	337.75	351.95	374.25	348.65