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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   27 32 35 39 40 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   14 20 21 26 23 29 24 16 18 28 18
Exceeded High   11 15 18 24 16 21 14 11 17 25 16
Scenario Percentage   79% 75% 86% 92% 70% 72% 58% 69% 94% 89% 89%
Avg Max Increase   9.22% 17.99% 20.84% 16.09% 13.98% 13.15% 11.91% 11.16% 14.82% 10.39% 9.37%
Max Increase   23.93% 84.24% 65.00% 52.21% 31.84% 54.33% 44.61% 22.62% 32.57% 34.45% 19.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 19 17 18 17 19 16 14 15 11 12
Avg Max Decline   -2.57% -3.89% -1.71% -2.04% -1.99% -1.90% -4.80% -4.73% -2.84% -3.47% -1.74%
Max Decline   -12.27% -15.27% -7.91% -8.23% -6.67% -5.58% -11.94% -16.18% -17.10% -10.44% -6.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 13 7 9 4 6 13 9 8 9 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action   No     No   Yes   Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   27 32 35 39 40 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   13 12 14 12 17 15 21 29 27 17 27
Penetrated Low   7 9 9 10 9 10 19 18 20 13 12
Scenario Percentage   54% 75% 64% 83% 53% 67% 90% 62% 74% 76% 44%
Avg Max Decline   13.20% 10.45% 11.63% 6.55% 6.83% 11.85% 10.25% 13.89% 10.53% 14.99% 9.61%
Max Decline   26.18% 43.23% 31.35% 19.41% 13.36% 19.44% 25.58% 33.91% 28.99% 41.59% 26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 15 13 10 14 11 15 17 17 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -3.53% -4.94% -3.39% -2.43% -2.30% -4.89% -2.54% -3.71% -3.49% -0.90% -1.26%
Max Increase   -13.66% -21.29% -12.69% -7.68% -7.08% -15.56% -10.40% -16.99% -12.24% -3.04% -6.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 7 12 8 8 11 9 9 10 3 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes        
Action     Yes Yes   Yes   No        
High 1117.40 1250.70 1132.80 1022.20 1090.80 1065.10 1009.50 1015.00 1061.50 1193.50 1323.00  
Low 914.80 1012.40 951.00 917.40 928.40 912.00 932.50 883.50 946.50 968.00 1102.50  
Close/Last 1017.10 1134.70 1008.50 926.40 1090.80 921.80 1008.60 944.50 968.60 1107.10 1301.60  

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