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ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 27 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 15 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 24 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 28 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 16 | |
Scenario Percentage | 73% | 75% | 90% | 93% | 67% | 71% | 60% | 71% | 94% | 89% | 89% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.22% | 17.99% | 22.13% | 16.27% | 13.98% | 13.39% | 13.29% | 10.49% | 15.17% | 10.39% | 9.70% | |
Max Increase | 23.93% | 84.24% | 65.00% | 52.21% | 31.84% | 54.33% | 44.61% | 22.62% | 32.57% | 34.45% | 19.96% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.57% | -3.89% | -1.77% | -2.00% | -1.99% | -1.85% | -4.57% | -4.92% | -2.95% | -3.47% | -1.09% | |
Max Decline | -12.27% | -15.27% | -7.91% | -8.23% | -6.67% | -5.58% | -11.94% | -16.18% | -17.10% | -10.44% | -6.07% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | No | Yes | No | Yes |
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