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ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Oct 20, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 23 | 29 | 32 | 36 | 38 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | |
Closed Higher | 13 | 18 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 26 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 15 | |
Scenario Percentage | 69% | 83% | 89% | 92% | 67% | 69% | 64% | 69% | 94% | 92% | 88% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.73% | 17.38% | 20.80% | 14.72% | 11.73% | 13.36% | 14.11% | 9.39% | 15.17% | 10.47% | 9.87% | |
Max Increase | 23.93% | 84.24% | 65.00% | 52.21% | 31.84% | 54.33% | 44.61% | 19.33% | 32.57% | 34.45% | 19.96% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.53% | -4.36% | -1.69% | -1.95% | -2.06% | -1.83% | -4.87% | -4.71% | -2.95% | -3.12% | -1.16% | |
Max Decline | -12.27% | -15.27% | -7.91% | -8.23% | -6.67% | -5.58% | -11.94% | -16.18% | -17.10% | -10.44% | -6.07% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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