MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	27	30	34	36	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		12	16	16	25	19	26	20	15	16	26	15
Exceeded High		8	13	14	23	13	18	13	10	15	24	13
Scenario Percentage		67%	81%	88%	92%	68%	69%	65%	67%	94%	92%	87%
Avg Max Increase		8.78%	17.67%	21.32%	14.36%	12.23%	13.36%	14.20%	9.87%	15.91%	10.47%	9.90%
Max Increase		23.93%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	31.84%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	20	16	17	16	20	16	15	17	11	11
Avg Max Decline		-2.81%	-4.77%	-2.01%	-2.08%	-1.98%	-1.83%	-4.58%	-5.09%	-3.09%	-3.12%	-1.12%
Max Decline		-12.27%	-15.27%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-11.94%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	15	7	9	4	6	13	8	9	9	2
2017 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	27	30	34	36	41	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		9	11	14	8	17	14	21	26	25	15	26
Penetrated Low		5	7	8	7	10	10	18	16	18	12	14
Scenario Percentage		56%	64%	57%	88%	59%	71%	86%	62%	72%	80%	54%
Avg Max Decline		13.21%	10.77%	10.14%	3.60%	8.34%	12.31%	11.08%	14.50%	10.15%	12.14%	8.12%
Max Decline		26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	33.91%	28.99%	41.59%	26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	15	12	7	16	15	15	16	17	17	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-2.08%	-3.73%	-3.11%	-2.68%	-2.66%	-2.18%	-2.52%	-3.56%	-1.51%	-2.25%
Max Increase		-6.99%	-5.23%	-12.69%	-7.68%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-10.40%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-5.96%	-9.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	12	8	8	8	10	8	11	4	5
2017 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes
Action		No		No					No
High	725.80	716.45	775.70	754.75	797.50	796.60	815.00	829.25	827.00	891.35	897.35	948.85
Low	660.50	617.85	622.25	657.25	711.75	750.45	741.55	770.60	747.70	809.05	824.30	865.45
Close/Last	725.80	622.70	775.70	685.35	755.20	772.40	798.50	826.45	815.95	836.65	885.40	931.95