MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		20	26	29	33	35	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		12	15	16	24	18	25	19	15	15	25	14
Exceeded High		8	12	14	22	12	17	12	10	14	23	12
Scenario Percentage		67%	80%	88%	92%	67%	68%	63%	67%	93%	92%	86%
Avg Max Increase		8.78%	18.91%	21.32%	14.65%	12.64%	13.92%	14.73%	9.87%	16.09%	10.39%	10.17%
Max Increase		23.93%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	31.84%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	20	16	17	15	20	17	15	16	12	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.81%	-3.89%	-2.01%	-2.10%	-1.82%	-1.73%	-4.17%	-5.09%	-3.20%	-3.16%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-12.27%	-11.92%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-11.94%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	14	7	7	3	5	12	8	9	9	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No		No			Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		20	26	29	33	35	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		8	11	13	8	17	14	21	25	25	15	26
Penetrated Low		5	7	8	7	10	10	18	16	18	12	14
Scenario Percentage		63%	64%	62%	88%	59%	71%	86%	64%	72%	80%	54%
Avg Max Decline		13.21%	10.77%	10.14%	3.60%	8.34%	12.31%	11.08%	14.50%	10.15%	12.14%	8.30%
Max Decline		26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	33.91%	28.99%	41.59%	26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	15	12	7	16	15	15	16	17	17	17
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-2.08%	-3.73%	-3.11%	-2.68%	-2.66%	-2.18%	-2.52%	-3.56%	-1.51%	-2.25%
Max Increase		-6.99%	-5.23%	-12.69%	-7.68%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-10.40%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-5.96%	-9.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	12	8	8	8	10	8	11	4	5
2016 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		No	No			No			Yes
High	668.55	709.30	651.55	572.70	547.10	528.40	607.85	634.65	631.40	600.70	715.90	747.50
Low	578.35	671.95	533.00	526.65	471.45	482.35	510.50	534.70	523.50	527.45	590.60	668.30
Close/Last	651.95	678.35	544.25	562.60	499.65	496.15	564.65	628.60	547.35	597.35	709.75	668.70