MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		18	24	27	31	33	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		10	14	15	24	17	24	17	15	14	24	14
Exceeded High		7	11	14	22	11	16	11	10	13	22	12
Scenario Percentage		70%	79%	93%	92%	65%	67%	65%	67%	93%	92%	86%
Avg Max Increase		9.48%	20.53%	21.32%	14.65%	13.65%	14.01%	15.76%	9.87%	15.39%	10.62%	10.17%
Max Increase		23.93%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	31.84%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	21	16	17	16	19	17	15	16	12	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.52%	-4.07%	-2.01%	-2.10%	-1.94%	-1.51%	-4.49%	-5.09%	-3.36%	-3.15%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-12.27%	-11.92%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-11.94%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	15	7	7	3	5	13	8	9	9	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		18	24	27	31	33	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		8	10	12	6	16	13	21	23	24	14	24
Penetrated Low		5	6	7	6	10	10	18	15	17	10	11
Scenario Percentage		63%	60%	58%	100%	63%	77%	86%	65%	71%	71%	46%
Avg Max Decline		13.21%	10.33%	10.80%	3.14%	8.34%	12.31%	11.08%	13.90%	9.42%	12.21%	8.26%
Max Decline		26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	33.91%	28.99%	41.59%	26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	16	11	3	16	15	15	15	17	15	15
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-1.55%	-3.95%	-2.35%	-2.68%	-2.66%	-2.18%	-2.67%	-3.50%	-0.95%	-0.94%
Max Increase		-6.99%	-2.69%	-12.69%	-6.20%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-10.40%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-3.04%	-2.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	4	12	4	8	8	10	8	11	3	4
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No	Yes
High	740.35	755.45	767.60	741.10	753.30	746.75	800.45	815.80	845.00	864.60	890.00	909.20
Low	685.20	702.90	717.20	698.10	706.20	701.00	748.40	762.75	796.60	806.35	843.45	837.50
Close/Last	729.55	740.00	721.70	721.00	706.45	745.80	777.80	813.45	836.35	843.15	873.70	908.65