MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		16	22	25	29	31	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		9	13	14	23	16	22	16	13	13	22	13
Exceeded High		6	10	13	21	10	15	10	8	12	20	11
Scenario Percentage		67%	77%	93%	91%	63%	68%	63%	62%	92%	91%	85%
Avg Max Increase		10.44%	21.53%	22.17%	15.09%	14.08%	14.37%	16.71%	11.23%	16.02%	11.17%	11.06%
Max Increase		23.93%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	31.84%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	20	16	18	16	19	18	15	15	12	13
Avg Max Decline		-2.97%	-4.19%	-1.78%	-1.99%	-2.17%	-1.48%	-4.73%	-5.79%	-3.59%	-3.16%	-1.05%
Max Decline		-12.27%	-11.92%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-11.94%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	13	7	6	4	5	14	7	7	10	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	No		No			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		16	22	25	29	31	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		7	9	11	5	15	13	20	23	23	14	23
Penetrated Low		5	5	7	5	9	10	17	15	17	10	10
Scenario Percentage		71%	56%	64%	100%	60%	77%	85%	65%	74%	71%	43%
Avg Max Decline		13.21%	11.75%	10.80%	3.61%	7.99%	12.31%	11.14%	13.90%	9.42%	12.21%	8.51%
Max Decline		26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	33.91%	28.99%	41.59%	26.27%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	14	11	3	16	15	14	15	17	15	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-1.32%	-3.95%	-2.83%	-2.19%	-2.66%	-1.70%	-2.67%	-3.50%	-0.95%	-0.96%
Max Increase		-6.99%	-2.55%	-12.69%	-6.20%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-7.88%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-3.04%	-2.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	3	12	4	8	8	8	8	11	3	4
2012 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No				Yes		Yes	Yes
High	791.70	672.45	680.25	689.50	697.50	725.00	720.30	686.85	686.25	641.90	605.95	658.00
Low	616.80	566.05	573.50	620.70	616.80	685.50	646.05	634.25	586.30	560.60	555.90	562.35
Close/Last	616.80	653.70	614.50	659.05	689.40	709.85	655.70	684.20	613.90	584.55	590.55	627.95