MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	14	19	22	26	28	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	7	11	11	20	14	21	13	13	13	19	11
Exceeded High	4	8	10	18	9	14	9	8	12	17	9
Scenario Percentage	57%	73%	91%	90%	64%	67%	69%	62%	92%	89%	82%
Avg Max Increase	8.31%	21.52%	25.81%	16.08%	12.10%	14.03%	18.20%	11.23%	16.02%	11.14%	10.84%
Max Increase	16.15%	84.24%	65.00%	52.21%	27.16%	54.33%	44.61%	19.33%	32.57%	34.45%	19.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	21	16	17	15	18	19	15	15	12	12
Avg Max Decline	-1.29%	-5.30%	-1.31%	-2.01%	-2.52%	-1.60%	-3.93%	-5.79%	-3.59%	-2.95%	-1.33%
Max Decline	-5.08%	-11.92%	-7.91%	-8.23%	-6.67%	-5.58%	-8.69%	-16.18%	-17.10%	-10.44%	-6.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline	2	12	7	6	4	5	14	7	7	11	3
2009 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Feb	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	14	19	22	26	28	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	7	8	11	5	14	11	20	20	20	14	22
Penetrated Low	5	5	7	5	8	9	17	14	15	10	11
Scenario Percentage	71%	62%	64%	100%	57%	82%	85%	70%	75%	71%	50%
Avg Max Decline	13.21%	11.75%	10.80%	3.61%	7.31%	12.50%	11.14%	14.22%	9.87%	12.21%	16.26%
Max Decline	26.18%	43.23%	31.35%	6.73%	15.99%	19.44%	25.58%	33.91%	28.99%	41.59%	68.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	14	11	3	16	14	14	15	17	15	14
Avg Max Increase	-2.17%	-1.32%	-3.95%	-2.83%	-2.09%	-2.43%	-1.70%	-2.53%	-2.94%	-0.95%	-2.50%
Max Increase	-6.99%	-2.55%	-12.69%	-6.20%	-8.65%	-15.56%	-7.88%	-9.41%	-12.24%	-3.04%	-13.92%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	3	12	4	8	5	8	8	10	3	6
2009 Contract Condition							Yes
Action							Yes
High					222.10	226.85	243.60	246.95	266.85	265.00	293.45
Low					196.25	191.95	213.10	210.50	230.50	225.10	262.00
Close/Last					197.05	219.80	219.30	237.45	250.95	264.60	291.80