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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   32 33 33 38 40 44 43 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 15 21 20 22 25 32 24 30 24 14
Exceeded High   17 12 17 15 18 21 27 17 22 15 11
Scenario Percentage   85% 80% 81% 75% 82% 84% 84% 71% 73% 63% 79%
Avg Max Increase   11.24% 13.20% 9.93% 11.17% 14.52% 23.59% 17.74% 13.83% 13.05% 11.08% 9.43%
Max Increase   32.70% 29.10% 30.02% 31.52% 33.60% 84.79% 71.54% 32.24% 62.28% 44.05% 30.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 17 16 15 18 17 18 17 18 12 13
Avg Max Decline   -2.42% -1.15% -2.36% -1.97% -3.89% -2.27% -3.01% -3.39% -3.03% -4.38% -1.93%
Max Decline   -8.08% -6.54% -14.89% -12.27% -15.26% -7.40% -9.69% -8.62% -13.01% -12.17% -9.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 7 7 6 10 7 9 7 6 9 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No     No   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   32 33 33 38 40 44 43 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   12 18 12 18 18 19 11 21 15 21 31
Penetrated Low   11 13 10 10 13 10 8 12 9 17 16
Scenario Percentage   92% 72% 83% 56% 72% 53% 73% 57% 60% 81% 52%
Avg Max Decline   11.44% 13.15% 11.40% 13.94% 11.78% 10.13% 7.48% 10.94% 11.63% 9.32% 9.46%
Max Decline   30.78% 28.52% 22.99% 27.18% 45.16% 29.66% 20.07% 40.32% 20.53% 18.87% 23.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 22 13 20 18 17 12 13 10 10 12
Avg Max Increase   -0.63% -4.16% -3.61% -4.41% -4.08% -5.02% -2.83% -3.50% -4.49% -2.92% -1.36%
Max Increase   -11.76% -13.35% -16.13% -15.91% -22.81% -18.45% -7.82% -10.65% -12.34% -9.99% -5.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 14 10 6 7 9 8 10 12 8 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes   Not Yet  
High 994.20 1053.40 987.10 1113.70 1257.00 1157.00 1031.50 1088.00 1083.00 1004.50 1009.00 1055.00
Low 915.90 899.30 843.90 910.00 1009.70 934.00 905.00 913.50 901.00 917.50 870.50 933.50
Close/Last 994.20 942.60 973.70 1014.40 1127.80 1002.10 918.50 1083.00 911.90 1000.70 934.40 961.30

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