MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		28	29	30	35	37	41	40	43	43	43	43
Closed Higher		18	13	19	19	21	24	32	24	26	21	14
Exceeded High		16	10	16	14	19	21	28	16	19	14	10
Scenario Percentage		89%	77%	84%	74%	90%	88%	88%	67%	73%	67%	71%
Avg Max Increase		11.01%	14.68%	11.89%	11.56%	17.87%	25.85%	17.66%	12.04%	13.38%	11.72%	8.87%
Max Increase		32.70%	41.80%	33.20%	31.52%	85.88%	84.79%	71.54%	32.24%	62.28%	44.05%	30.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	13	15	15	18	17	18	16	19	13	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.19%	-0.09%	-2.38%	-1.96%	-3.96%	-1.89%	-2.75%	-3.20%	-2.52%	-4.65%	-2.29%
Max Decline		-8.08%	-4.49%	-14.89%	-12.27%	-15.26%	-7.40%	-9.69%	-8.62%	-6.59%	-12.17%	-9.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	7	6	9	7	9	7	5	10	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		28	29	30	35	37	41	40	43	43	43	43
Closed Lower		10	16	11	16	16	17	8	19	17	22	29
Penetrated Low		9	11	9	8	10	8	6	11	12	17	14
Scenario Percentage		90%	69%	82%	50%	63%	47%	75%	58%	71%	77%	48%
Avg Max Decline		8.56%	11.43%	11.49%	13.91%	12.31%	9.28%	4.29%	12.43%	11.34%	10.45%	10.03%
Max Decline		16.18%	28.52%	22.99%	27.18%	45.16%	29.66%	8.23%	40.32%	20.53%	25.40%	23.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	11	21	18	15	13	15	13	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-3.56%	-2.22%	-3.78%	-1.75%	-3.76%	-3.60%	-3.42%	-3.90%	-2.31%	-0.93%
Max Increase		-11.76%	-13.35%	-6.44%	-15.91%	-5.30%	-13.68%	-7.82%	-9.30%	-18.10%	-8.30%	-4.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	13	5	5	5	6	11	9	11	7	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes					Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			No					Yes		Not Yet
High	1006.70	945.90	963.00	1058.90	1107.60	1163.20	1190.00	1381.20	1525.80	1576.90	1457.20	1378.90
Low	921.50	856.40	828.00	954.40	1031.50	1065.30	1123.30	1177.10	1295.50	1303.20	1292.50	1256.50
Close/Last	940.00	922.70	963.00	1058.90	1051.90	1134.70	1181.80	1289.40	1501.50	1341.80	1382.70	1333.90