MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		22	23	24	29	31	35	34	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		14	10	14	15	17	21	30	19	23	15	11
Exceeded High		12	8	11	11	15	19	26	12	16	10	8
Scenario Percentage		86%	80%	79%	73%	88%	90%	87%	63%	70%	67%	73%
Avg Max Increase		12.72%	15.88%	13.65%	13.19%	20.09%	26.70%	17.85%	14.05%	14.29%	13.52%	10.16%
Max Increase		32.70%	41.80%	33.20%	31.52%	85.88%	84.79%	71.54%	32.24%	62.28%	44.05%	30.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	12	13	15	19	16	17	16	17	12	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.36%	0.43%	-1.59%	-2.08%	-3.59%	-2.04%	-2.91%	-3.61%	-2.29%	-4.36%	-2.60%
Max Decline		-8.08%	-4.49%	-5.63%	-12.27%	-11.74%	-7.40%	-9.69%	-8.62%	-6.59%	-12.17%	-9.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	7	5	10	8	8	8	5	10	4
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		22	23	24	29	31	35	34	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		8	13	10	14	14	14	4	18	14	22	26
Penetrated Low		7	9	8	8	8	7	3	11	10	17	14
Scenario Percentage		88%	69%	80%	57%	57%	50%	75%	61%	71%	77%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	12.43%	12.47%	13.91%	12.96%	9.68%	3.34%	12.43%	12.42%	10.45%	10.03%
Max Decline		16.18%	28.52%	22.99%	27.18%	45.16%	29.66%	5.46%	40.32%	20.53%	25.40%	23.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	11	21	18	15	5	15	15	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-3.57%	-2.09%	-3.78%	-1.17%	-3.93%	-2.90%	-3.42%	-3.73%	-2.31%	-0.93%
Max Increase		-11.76%	-13.35%	-6.44%	-15.91%	-5.19%	-13.68%	-4.53%	-9.30%	-18.10%	-8.30%	-4.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		15	12	5	5	4	5	2	9	10	7	2
2013 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes		Yes
Action					No				Yes		Not Yet
High	636.05	600.20	661.55	700.30	676.95	692.85	710.50	760.00	779.20	788.45	784.80	764.90
Low	565.20	563.25	570.80	627.15	592.45	602.75	673.60	665.85	710.70	713.00	647.50	672.80
Close/Last	585.85	593.35	630.90	642.10	612.65	689.45	704.65	747.10	734.55	768.25	697.80	751.05