MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		21	22	23	28	30	34	33	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		13	9	13	15	16	20	29	19	22	15	10
Exceeded High		11	7	11	11	14	18	25	12	16	10	7
Scenario Percentage		85%	78%	85%	73%	88%	90%	86%	63%	73%	67%	70%
Avg Max Increase		12.24%	16.58%	13.65%	13.19%	20.79%	27.60%	18.34%	14.05%	14.29%	13.56%	11.34%
Max Increase		32.70%	41.80%	33.20%	31.52%	85.88%	84.79%	71.54%	32.24%	62.28%	44.05%	30.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	12	13	15	18	17	18	16	17	12	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.23%	0.22%	-1.59%	-2.08%	-3.60%	-1.85%	-2.83%	-3.61%	-2.29%	-4.36%	-2.92%
Max Decline		-8.08%	-4.49%	-5.63%	-12.27%	-11.74%	-7.40%	-9.69%	-8.62%	-6.59%	-12.17%	-9.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	4	7	5	8	8	7	8	5	10	4
2012 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		21	22	23	28	30	34	33	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		8	13	10	13	14	14	4	17	14	21	26
Penetrated Low		7	9	8	8	8	7	3	10	10	17	14
Scenario Percentage		88%	69%	80%	62%	57%	50%	75%	59%	71%	81%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	12.43%	12.47%	13.91%	12.96%	9.68%	3.34%	12.49%	12.42%	10.48%	10.07%
Max Decline		16.18%	28.52%	22.99%	27.18%	45.16%	29.66%	5.46%	40.32%	20.53%	25.40%	23.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	11	21	18	15	5	15	15	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-3.57%	-2.09%	-3.78%	-1.17%	-3.93%	-2.90%	-3.03%	-3.73%	-2.31%	-0.93%
Max Increase		-11.76%	-13.35%	-6.44%	-15.91%	-5.19%	-13.68%	-4.53%	-9.30%	-18.10%	-8.30%	-4.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		15	12	5	5	4	5	2	9	10	7	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No				Yes		Not Yet
High	820.75	838.40	831.85	791.70	672.45	680.25	687.80	702.35	727.80	723.00	685.00	686.20
Low	727.05	759.70	729.40	616.80	566.05	573.50	614.00	615.35	679.00	641.20	629.00	584.25
Close/Last	763.00	830.35	791.95	616.80	653.70	614.00	657.60	688.05	708.40	654.10	682.35	612.10