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ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2010 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Feb | Feb | Feb | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 19 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 27 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 10 | |
Exceeded High | 10 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 23 | 12 | 16 | 8 | 7 | |
Scenario Percentage | 91% | 75% | 83% | 69% | 87% | 89% | 85% | 67% | 73% | 62% | 70% | |
Avg Max Increase | 12.05% | 14.60% | 12.01% | 12.85% | 21.03% | 29.92% | 19.47% | 14.05% | 14.29% | 16.42% | 11.29% | |
Max Increase | 32.70% | 41.80% | 33.20% | 31.52% | 85.88% | 84.79% | 71.54% | 32.24% | 62.28% | 44.05% | 30.55% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 12 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.78% | -0.33% | -1.58% | -1.00% | -3.90% | -1.25% | -2.91% | -3.61% | -2.29% | -3.81% | -2.92% | |
Max Decline | -8.08% | -4.49% | -5.63% | -4.16% | -11.74% | -7.40% | -9.69% | -8.62% | -6.59% | -9.43% | -9.86% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 4 | |
2010 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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