MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	19	20	21	25	27	31	30	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	11	8	12	12	14	17	26	17	21	12	10
Exceeded High	10	6	10	8	12	15	22	11	15	8	7
Scenario Percentage	91%	75%	83%	67%	86%	88%	85%	65%	71%	67%	70%
Avg Max Increase	12.05%	14.60%	12.01%	11.21%	20.41%	30.90%	19.53%	12.40%	13.94%	16.42%	11.29%
Max Increase	32.70%	41.80%	33.20%	31.52%	85.88%	84.79%	71.54%	27.73%	62.28%	44.05%	30.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	9	13	12	17	16	17	15	17	13	15
Avg Max Decline	-1.78%	-0.33%	-1.58%	-0.98%	-3.85%	-1.45%	-2.70%	-3.92%	-2.41%	-3.81%	-2.92%
Max Decline	-8.08%	-4.49%	-5.63%	-4.16%	-11.74%	-7.40%	-9.69%	-8.62%	-6.59%	-9.43%	-9.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	3	8	2	7	8	6	8	5	11	4
2009 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	19	20	21	25	27	31	30	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	8	12	9	13	13	14	4	16	12	21	23
Penetrated Low	7	8	7	8	8	7	3	9	9	17	18
Scenario Percentage	88%	67%	78%	62%	62%	50%	75%	56%	75%	81%	78%
Avg Max Decline	7.62%	10.42%	13.07%	13.91%	12.96%	9.68%	3.34%	12.31%	12.61%	10.45%	19.35%
Max Decline	16.18%	21.42%	22.99%	27.18%	45.16%	29.66%	5.46%	40.32%	20.53%	25.40%	61.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	22	12	21	18	15	5	14	14	11	12
Avg Max Increase	-2.44%	-4.02%	-2.88%	-3.78%	-1.17%	-3.93%	-2.90%	-3.00%	-3.60%	-2.31%	-3.56%
Max Increase	-11.76%	-13.35%	-6.44%	-15.91%	-5.19%	-13.68%	-4.53%	-9.30%	-18.10%	-8.30%	-18.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase	15	13	5	5	4	5	2	10	7	7	-34
2009 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No				Yes
High			227.45	212.90	236.00	199.95	201.55	223.00	229.90	242.95	248.90
Low			204.65	172.00	182.40	163.00	177.00	182.00	190.40	211.20	209.10
Close/Last			204.65	203.60	196.25	189.70	194.40	195.70	218.80	218.20	236.05