MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	33	34	40	41	42	43	44	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	12	13	25	17	27	22	24	28	34	26
Exceeded High		10	10	12	22	15	24	17	21	25	28	17
Scenario Percentage		56%	83%	92%	88%	88%	89%	77%	88%	89%	82%	65%
Avg Max Increase		9.75%	9.22%	12.09%	10.47%	13.29%	12.74%	12.64%	19.51%	24.89%	18.64%	9.41%
Max Increase		34.24%	22.57%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	20	15	16	16	17	18	18	18	18
Avg Max Decline		-4.16%	-3.00%	-0.79%	-3.18%	-1.08%	-2.61%	-2.44%	-4.05%	-2.48%	-2.96%	-2.57%
Max Decline		-10.81%	-11.93%	-6.65%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-15.11%	-13.35%	-15.60%	-7.88%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	7	10	9	8	9	6	9	6	7	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		32	33	34	40	41	42	43	44	45	45	45
Closed Lower		13	20	21	15	24	15	21	20	17	11	19
Penetrated Low		11	12	16	14	18	12	13	13	9	6	6
Scenario Percentage		85%	60%	76%	93%	75%	80%	62%	65%	53%	55%	32%
Avg Max Decline		9.30%	9.17%	8.92%	14.24%	12.97%	12.52%	13.45%	12.09%	11.20%	6.66%	8.20%
Max Decline		22.17%	21.59%	22.58%	48.57%	45.76%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	18.95%	19.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	16	14	18	18	17	17	15	21	9	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-2.00%	-1.85%	-0.84%	-2.66%	-4.29%	-5.86%	-2.44%	-4.94%	-3.42%	-0.51%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-8.34%	-11.53%	-11.96%	-13.41%	-16.66%	-18.35%	-10.50%	-14.46%	-7.74%	-3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	6	7	11	12	11	4	11	8	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	2966.20	2464.60	2250.80	2054.20	2183.00	2300.40	2281.50	2357.50	2125.50	2003.00	1841.00	1698.50
Low	2092.00	2129.00	1898.30	1788.80	1846.30	1989.00	1957.50	1823.00	1774.00	1640.50	1582.00	1354.00
Close/Last	2257.10	2319.60	2015.60	1928.40	2146.50	2078.80	2187.80	1844.30	1866.00	1798.00	1648.30	1404.40