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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jul 01, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 12 13 24 17 27 23 24 28 35 26
Exceeded High   10 10 12 21 15 24 18 22 25 29 17
Scenario Percentage   59% 83% 92% 88% 88% 89% 78% 92% 89% 83% 65%
Avg Max Increase   9.75% 9.22% 12.09% 10.62% 13.29% 13.73% 13.09% 19.65% 24.89% 18.30% 9.41%
Max Increase   34.24% 22.57% 27.79% 32.84% 43.03% 35.66% 32.67% 86.19% 85.89% 72.27% 26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 20 15 16 17 16 19 18 17 18
Avg Max Decline   -4.16% -3.00% -0.79% -3.06% -1.08% -2.67% -2.47% -4.30% -2.48% -3.04% -2.57%
Max Decline   -10.81% -11.93% -6.65% -9.29% -4.50% -15.11% -13.35% -15.60% -7.88% -9.85% -8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 7 10 9 8 9 6 10 6 7 4
2022 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes           Yes   Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   14 20 21 16 24 15 20 20 17 10 19
Penetrated Low   12 12 17 15 18 12 12 13 8 5 5
Scenario Percentage   86% 60% 81% 94% 75% 80% 60% 65% 47% 50% 26%
Avg Max Decline   10.44% 9.47% 8.97% 13.58% 12.36% 12.52% 13.65% 12.09% 9.52% 4.20% 8.87%
Max Decline   23.01% 21.59% 22.58% 48.57% 45.76% 22.13% 27.97% 44.17% 29.35% 6.94% 19.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 14 18 17 17 17 15 21 9 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.60% -1.83% -1.68% -0.74% -2.06% -4.29% -5.08% -2.44% -5.25% -3.50% -0.20%
Max Increase   -10.08% -8.34% -11.53% -11.96% -12.56% -16.66% -18.35% -10.50% -14.46% -7.74% -3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 8 6 9 9 12 11 4 12 9 1
2022 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes      
High 2656.60 2946.40 2972.80 2858.90 2865.00 2699.00 2445.00 2204.50 2219.00 2020.50 2449.50 2711.00
Low 2268.60 2606.80 2726.90 2453.00 2596.50 2284.10 1829.00 1835.50 1690.50 1531.00 1818.00 2165.50
Close/Last 2601.20 2946.40 2820.20 2778.40 2661.10 2471.90 1902.10 1982.50 1705.50 1912.10 2355.80 2500.50

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