MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		29	30	31	37	38	39	40	41	42	42	43
Closed Higher		15	11	12	23	15	25	21	22	25	33	24
Exceeded High		8	9	11	20	13	22	16	20	22	27	12
Scenario Percentage		53%	82%	92%	87%	87%	88%	76%	91%	88%	82%	50%
Avg Max Increase		10.56%	7.74%	12.88%	10.49%	13.37%	14.10%	13.18%	19.64%	24.08%	17.30%	8.02%
Max Increase		34.24%	18.37%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	13	21	15	15	17	16	20	18	16	16
Avg Max Decline		-4.45%	-2.62%	-0.86%	-3.19%	-0.93%	-2.56%	-2.38%	-4.29%	-2.43%	-2.66%	-3.11%
Max Decline		-10.81%	-11.93%	-6.65%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-15.11%	-13.35%	-15.60%	-7.88%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	5	11	10	7	9	6	9	6	6	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		29	30	31	37	38	39	40	41	42	42	43
Closed Lower		13	18	19	14	23	14	19	19	17	9	19
Penetrated Low		11	11	16	13	17	11	12	12	8	4	5
Scenario Percentage		85%	61%	84%	93%	74%	79%	63%	63%	47%	44%	26%
Avg Max Decline		10.47%	9.14%	8.42%	12.60%	11.55%	12.65%	13.65%	12.24%	9.52%	4.22%	8.64%
Max Decline		23.01%	21.59%	22.58%	48.57%	45.76%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	6.94%	18.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	13	18	16	16	17	15	21	5	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-1.87%	-1.59%	-1.24%	-2.25%	-3.16%	-5.08%	-1.77%	-5.25%	-2.44%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-8.34%	-11.53%	-11.96%	-12.56%	-7.26%	-18.35%	-5.76%	-14.46%	-4.79%	-3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	5	10	9	8	11	4	12	4	1
2019 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes			No
High	979.35	1017.25	981.40	1007.00	946.20	965.00	1074.70	1128.40	1173.30	1210.20	1396.40	1553.00
Low	931.95	886.25	923.05	921.80	856.70	828.20	936.20	1025.60	1056.20	1135.80	1190.10	1303.20
Close/Last	931.95	946.40	972.10	940.30	923.00	963.30	1065.90	1062.00	1144.60	1197.20	1299.90	1532.00