MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		26	27	28	34	35	36	37	38	39	39	40
Closed Higher		12	10	10	21	13	22	20	19	23	31	21
Exceeded High		7	8	9	18	11	19	15	17	20	25	13
Scenario Percentage		58%	80%	90%	86%	85%	86%	75%	89%	87%	81%	62%
Avg Max Increase		11.46%	8.26%	11.64%	10.77%	13.61%	14.90%	13.42%	20.86%	24.66%	17.78%	8.70%
Max Increase		34.24%	18.37%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	21	16	15	15	16	20	17	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-3.89%	-3.00%	-1.12%	-3.37%	-0.51%	-1.79%	-2.51%	-3.90%	-2.63%	-3.05%	-2.77%
Max Decline		-10.81%	-11.93%	-6.65%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-5.66%	-13.35%	-12.72%	-7.88%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	5	12	10	6	8	5	9	6	7	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes					Yes	No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		26	27	28	34	35	36	37	38	39	39	40
Closed Lower		13	16	18	13	22	14	17	19	16	8	19
Penetrated Low		11	10	15	12	16	11	12	12	8	4	5
Scenario Percentage		85%	63%	83%	92%	73%	79%	71%	63%	50%	50%	26%
Avg Max Decline		10.47%	9.73%	8.19%	12.79%	11.74%	12.65%	13.65%	12.24%	9.52%	3.51%	8.87%
Max Decline		23.01%	21.59%	22.58%	48.57%	45.76%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	4.72%	19.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	13	19	16	16	17	15	21	9	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-1.81%	-1.65%	-1.39%	-1.85%	-3.16%	-5.08%	-1.77%	-5.25%	-3.72%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-8.34%	-11.53%	-11.96%	-12.56%	-7.26%	-18.35%	-5.76%	-14.46%	-7.74%	-3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	5	11	8	8	11	4	12	11	1
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Not Yet	Not Yet
High	832.65	786.60	804.50	773.65	702.75	623.95	673.80	722.05	672.20	574.50	563.30	531.40
Low	730.65	747.90	775.65	668.05	610.00	521.90	573.20	653.10	526.75	522.55	451.50	480.00
Close/Last	736.95	778.35	778.00	674.15	611.80	602.45	651.25	677.65	543.20	562.00	498.50	495.60