MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		21	22	23	29	30	31	32	33	34	34	35
Closed Higher		8	8	9	17	11	19	16	17	20	29	18
Exceeded High		4	6	8	14	9	17	12	15	18	23	11
Scenario Percentage		50%	75%	89%	82%	82%	89%	75%	88%	90%	79%	61%
Avg Max Increase		17.06%	9.69%	12.10%	11.66%	15.33%	15.70%	15.66%	22.87%	26.22%	18.85%	9.41%
Max Increase		34.24%	18.37%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	14	20	18	16	15	18	20	17	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-3.53%	-3.40%	-1.29%	-3.81%	-0.34%	-1.75%	-1.53%	-4.00%	-2.18%	-3.04%	-3.27%
Max Decline		-6.36%	-11.93%	-6.65%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-5.66%	-4.67%	-12.72%	-7.88%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	3	9	12	7	9	4	8	6	6	3
2011 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		21	22	23	29	30	31	32	33	34	34	35
Closed Lower		12	13	14	12	19	12	16	16	14	5	17
Penetrated Low		10	8	12	11	14	9	12	10	7	2	5
Scenario Percentage		83%	62%	86%	92%	74%	75%	75%	63%	50%	40%	29%
Avg Max Decline		10.59%	8.41%	7.48%	12.62%	10.75%	13.55%	13.65%	12.63%	9.94%	4.42%	8.87%
Max Decline		23.01%	18.71%	19.55%	48.57%	45.76%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	4.72%	19.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	12	18	17	17	17	14	22	3	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.26%	-1.90%	-0.55%	-1.34%	-2.10%	-3.50%	-5.08%	-1.20%	-5.62%	-2.87%	-0.20%
Max Increase		-6.65%	-8.34%	-3.21%	-11.96%	-12.56%	-7.26%	-18.35%	-5.24%	-14.46%	-4.79%	-3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	3	11	9	9	11	3	12	6	1
2011 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes								Yes
Action			No	Yes								Yes
High	484.75	570.05	551.25	496.95	502.70	518.20	574.95	648.80	745.00	804.90	829.85	862.00
Low	438.70	494.05	411.85	431.80	428.30	467.55	518.95	561.35	627.75	694.15	740.00	756.30
Close/Last	482.25	558.70	464.80	445.85	502.70	503.10	572.40	646.85	703.00	803.30	820.10	797.65