MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		20	21	22	28	29	30	31	32	33	33	34
Closed Higher		7	8	9	16	10	18	15	16	19	28	18
Exceeded High		4	6	8	13	8	16	11	14	17	22	8
Scenario Percentage		57%	75%	89%	81%	80%	89%	73%	88%	89%	79%	44%
Avg Max Increase		17.06%	9.69%	12.10%	11.45%	13.62%	14.80%	14.86%	23.21%	27.34%	19.08%	9.56%
Max Increase		34.24%	18.37%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	14	20	17	15	16	16	20	17	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-3.53%	-3.40%	-1.29%	-3.56%	-0.78%	-1.74%	-1.40%	-4.20%	-1.85%	-2.79%	-3.85%
Max Decline		-6.36%	-11.93%	-6.65%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-5.66%	-4.67%	-12.72%	-7.57%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	3	9	12	7	9	3	8	6	5	3
2010 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		20	21	22	28	29	30	31	32	33	33	34
Closed Lower		12	12	13	12	19	12	16	16	14	5	16
Penetrated Low		10	8	11	11	14	9	12	10	7	2	4
Scenario Percentage		83%	67%	85%	92%	74%	75%	75%	63%	50%	40%	25%
Avg Max Decline		10.59%	8.41%	7.81%	12.62%	10.75%	13.55%	13.65%	12.63%	9.94%	4.42%	7.62%
Max Decline		23.01%	18.71%	19.55%	48.57%	45.76%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	4.72%	18.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	13	18	17	17	17	14	22	3	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.26%	-1.90%	-0.91%	-1.34%	-2.10%	-3.50%	-5.08%	-1.20%	-5.62%	-2.87%	0.52%
Max Increase		-6.65%	-8.34%	-3.21%	-11.96%	-12.56%	-7.26%	-18.35%	-5.24%	-14.46%	-4.79%	-1.46%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	4	11	9	9	11	3	12	6	1
2010 Contract Condition
Action
High	200.00	200.00	200.00	255.60	267.30	294.75	306.70	342.90	379.95	410.00	474.50	451.15
Low	200.00	200.00	200.00	200.00	236.70	269.00	286.10	293.00	320.75	346.00	408.00	380.05
Close/Last	200.00	200.00	200.00	253.55	267.30	294.75	300.20	324.30	366.20	408.85	412.65	432.40