MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	17	18	19	25	26	27	28	29	30	30	31
Closed Higher	6	7	7	15	9	16	13	15	17	25	15
Exceeded High	4	5	7	12	7	14	9	13	15	19	7
Scenario Percentage	67%	71%	100%	80%	78%	88%	69%	87%	88%	76%	47%
Avg Max Increase	17.06%	9.84%	11.51%	11.18%	13.23%	14.29%	14.81%	22.72%	26.26%	17.87%	10.05%
Max Increase	34.24%	18.37%	27.79%	32.84%	43.03%	35.66%	32.67%	86.19%	85.89%	72.27%	26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase	21	13	19	17	14	16	16	20	16	17	19
Avg Max Decline	-3.53%	-3.56%	-0.53%	-3.91%	-0.47%	-1.73%	-1.45%	-4.10%	-1.76%	-2.73%	-3.65%
Max Decline	-6.36%	-11.93%	-4.12%	-9.29%	-4.50%	-5.66%	-4.67%	-12.72%	-7.57%	-9.85%	-8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline	16	3	10	13	4	10	3	7	7	5	4
2007 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	17	18	19	25	26	27	28	29	30	30	31
Closed Lower	11	11	12	10	17	11	15	14	13	5	16
Penetrated Low	9	8	10	9	13	8	11	9	7	2	8
Scenario Percentage	82%	73%	83%	90%	76%	73%	73%	64%	54%	40%	50%
Avg Max Decline	11.58%	8.41%	7.30%	8.63%	8.05%	13.01%	13.02%	12.09%	9.94%	4.42%	20.29%
Max Decline	23.01%	18.71%	19.55%	18.12%	23.04%	22.13%	27.97%	44.17%	29.35%	4.72%	60.83%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	14	12	16	17	17	18	15	22	3	8
Avg Max Increase	-1.58%	-1.90%	-0.84%	-1.94%	-2.61%	-3.12%	-3.87%	-1.53%	-5.62%	-2.87%	-5.66%
Max Increase	-6.65%	-8.34%	-3.21%	-11.96%	-12.56%	-7.26%	-12.62%	-5.24%	-14.46%	-4.79%	-11.79%
Avg Days to Max Increase	9	9	2	13	9	10	11	3	12	6	12
2007 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes
Action				Yes		Yes
High			329.75	343.00	357.40	365.05	342.70	344.20	339.30	356.85	358.90
Low			301.00	320.50	326.80	307.50	298.00	319.00	321.25	325.20	332.50
Close/Last			329.75	326.05	354.20	321.70	327.95	334.35	338.50	340.55	351.10