MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Oats(CBOT) as of Oct 29, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	18	19	25	19	17	20	22	25	25	20
Exceeded High		10	12	17	16	16	12	14	16	22	16	11
Scenario Percentage		67%	67%	89%	64%	84%	71%	70%	73%	88%	64%	55%
Avg Max Increase		10.36%	9.28%	10.01%	19.67%	19.95%	14.18%	12.71%	12.92%	16.46%	14.44%	5.79%
Max Increase		32.94%	30.42%	24.73%	124.03%	100.39%	22.60%	29.75%	40.25%	35.52%	27.44%	19.32%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	15	16	16	14	17	18	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-3.30%	-1.41%	-1.90%	-3.02%	-1.63%	-5.42%	-3.06%	-2.44%	-2.38%	-1.82%
Max Decline		-6.32%	-12.05%	-7.08%	-6.64%	-9.23%	-5.03%	-9.14%	-10.22%	-7.59%	-9.51%	-6.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	10	9	4	4	8	11	6	10	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	24	24	19	24	28	25	22	20	19	24
Penetrated Low		20	17	15	15	22	23	19	15	18	12	9
Scenario Percentage		80%	71%	63%	79%	92%	82%	76%	68%	90%	63%	38%
Avg Max Decline		7.11%	8.56%	8.55%	8.87%	11.94%	11.78%	10.40%	9.21%	9.96%	9.72%	3.97%
Max Decline		18.88%	16.71%	16.12%	17.38%	27.19%	27.27%	22.12%	39.54%	39.56%	20.30%	9.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	17	18	20	21	21	17	21	13	4
Avg Max Increase		-1.86%	-1.02%	-2.85%	-3.89%	-5.04%	-2.88%	-3.71%	-3.94%	-5.42%	-2.97%	-1.19%
Max Increase		-8.55%	-3.62%	-7.06%	-11.41%	-19.33%	-10.65%	-10.28%	-9.52%	-13.68%	-7.99%	-8.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	14	11	12	4	11	8	12	5	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes
Action		No
High	315.00	321.00	345.75	356.75	381.50	398.25	404.25	467.50	525.00	594.50	733.75
Low	286.75	295.00	300.50	330.75	342.50	349.75	356.50	363.00	440.25	486.00	570.25
Close/Last	314.00	307.50	332.50	348.75	375.00	377.00	392.00	447.75	502.25	582.25	729.75