MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Oats(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	18	20	26	18	16	21	22	25	24	21
Exceeded High		10	12	18	16	15	12	15	15	21	15	10
Scenario Percentage		67%	67%	90%	62%	83%	75%	71%	68%	84%	63%	48%
Avg Max Increase		10.36%	9.28%	9.77%	19.67%	20.82%	14.18%	12.81%	12.94%	16.84%	13.54%	4.49%
Max Increase		32.94%	30.42%	24.73%	124.03%	100.39%	22.60%	29.75%	40.25%	35.52%	26.13%	15.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	16	16	15	14	17	17	17	11	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-3.30%	-1.73%	-1.90%	-2.91%	-1.63%	-5.04%	-3.02%	-2.46%	-2.22%	-1.83%
Max Decline		-6.32%	-12.05%	-7.08%	-6.64%	-9.23%	-5.03%	-9.14%	-10.22%	-7.59%	-9.51%	-6.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	10	9	4	4	8	11	6	8	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	24	23	18	25	29	24	22	20	20	23
Penetrated Low		20	17	15	15	23	23	18	15	18	12	9
Scenario Percentage		80%	71%	65%	83%	92%	79%	75%	68%	90%	60%	39%
Avg Max Decline		7.55%	8.54%	8.55%	8.87%	11.72%	11.78%	10.59%	9.21%	9.96%	9.72%	3.97%
Max Decline		18.88%	16.71%	16.12%	17.38%	27.19%	27.27%	22.12%	39.54%	39.56%	20.30%	9.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	17	18	21	21	21	17	21	13	4
Avg Max Increase		-1.98%	-0.79%	-2.85%	-3.89%	-4.92%	-2.88%	-3.87%	-3.94%	-5.42%	-2.97%	-1.19%
Max Increase		-8.55%	-2.91%	-7.06%	-11.41%	-19.33%	-10.65%	-10.28%	-9.52%	-13.68%	-7.99%	-8.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	14	11	13	4	11	8	12	5	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			No	Yes			Yes	No
High	271.00	281.00	278.00	266.00	265.00	290.00	299.00	289.25	276.75	286.00	309.00	326.75
Low	256.00	261.50	252.50	253.00	252.50	248.50	271.00	262.00	263.00	264.50	275.25	297.25
Close/Last	268.00	268.75	257.25	255.25	260.75	285.75	276.50	263.75	269.00	275.75	297.25	321.25