MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Oats(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	41	41	42	42	42	42	42	43	43	43
Closed Higher		13	17	20	24	16	15	19	20	23	21	19
Exceeded High		10	12	18	14	13	11	14	13	19	13	10
Scenario Percentage		77%	71%	90%	58%	81%	73%	74%	65%	83%	62%	53%
Avg Max Increase		10.36%	9.28%	9.77%	19.41%	21.13%	14.75%	12.76%	12.12%	16.13%	14.38%	6.05%
Max Increase		32.94%	30.42%	24.73%	124.03%	100.39%	22.60%	29.75%	40.25%	35.52%	27.44%	19.32%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	16	15	16	15	18	17	15	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-3.30%	-1.73%	-1.75%	-2.91%	-1.79%	-5.34%	-2.84%	-2.83%	-2.57%	-1.97%
Max Decline		-6.32%	-12.05%	-7.08%	-6.64%	-9.23%	-5.03%	-9.14%	-10.22%	-7.59%	-9.51%	-6.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	10	9	4	4	8	11	6	9	2
2016 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	No					Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		37	41	41	42	42	42	42	42	43	43	43
Closed Lower		24	22	20	18	25	27	23	21	20	21	23
Penetrated Low		19	16	12	15	23	21	18	14	18	13	8
Scenario Percentage		79%	73%	60%	83%	92%	78%	78%	67%	90%	62%	35%
Avg Max Decline		7.70%	8.46%	9.90%	8.87%	11.72%	12.41%	10.59%	9.66%	9.96%	9.97%	3.23%
Max Decline		18.88%	16.71%	16.12%	17.38%	27.19%	27.27%	22.12%	39.54%	39.56%	20.30%	8.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	17	19	18	21	21	21	17	21	14	4
Avg Max Increase		-1.68%	-0.78%	-2.83%	-3.89%	-4.92%	-2.89%	-3.87%	-4.01%	-5.42%	-3.00%	-1.36%
Max Increase		-8.55%	-2.91%	-7.06%	-11.41%	-19.33%	-10.65%	-10.28%	-9.52%	-13.68%	-7.99%	-8.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	16	11	13	5	11	8	12	6	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
High	237.50	227.00	219.00	222.00	238.00	223.75	234.00	209.75	203.00	181.50	240.50	238.50
Low	228.00	206.00	202.75	199.00	208.50	209.75	199.00	188.25	172.25	171.00	178.50	198.25
Close/Last	228.00	217.50	205.50	214.50	222.00	213.25	201.75	199.25	176.00	178.25	220.50	199.25