MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	40	40	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42
Closed Higher		13	17	19	23	16	15	19	20	22	20	19
Exceeded High		10	12	17	14	13	11	14	13	18	13	10
Scenario Percentage		77%	71%	89%	61%	81%	73%	74%	65%	82%	65%	53%
Avg Max Increase		10.36%	9.28%	9.70%	19.41%	21.13%	14.75%	12.76%	12.12%	15.09%	14.38%	6.05%
Max Increase		32.94%	30.42%	24.73%	124.03%	100.39%	22.60%	29.75%	40.25%	35.52%	27.44%	19.32%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	16	15	16	15	18	17	14	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-3.30%	-1.66%	-1.75%	-2.91%	-1.79%	-5.34%	-2.84%	-2.99%	-2.57%	-1.97%
Max Decline		-6.32%	-12.05%	-7.08%	-6.64%	-9.23%	-5.03%	-9.14%	-10.22%	-7.59%	-9.51%	-6.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	10	9	4	4	8	11	6	9	2
2015 Contract Condition							Yes				Yes	Yes
Action							No				Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		36	40	40	41	41	41	41	41	42	42	42
Closed Lower		23	21	20	18	24	26	22	20	20	21	22
Penetrated Low		18	15	12	15	22	20	17	13	18	13	7
Scenario Percentage		78%	71%	60%	83%	92%	77%	77%	65%	90%	62%	32%
Avg Max Decline		7.66%	8.81%	9.90%	8.87%	11.72%	12.30%	10.37%	10.18%	9.96%	9.97%	3.60%
Max Decline		18.88%	16.71%	16.12%	17.38%	27.19%	27.27%	22.12%	39.54%	39.56%	20.30%	8.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	18	19	18	21	20	22	18	21	14	4
Avg Max Increase		-1.73%	-0.83%	-2.83%	-3.89%	-4.70%	-2.84%	-3.99%	-4.08%	-5.42%	-3.00%	-1.36%
Max Increase		-8.55%	-2.91%	-7.06%	-11.41%	-19.33%	-10.65%	-10.28%	-9.52%	-13.68%	-7.99%	-8.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	16	11	13	4	12	8	12	6	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	315.50	306.75	294.00	287.25	281.00	270.75	283.50	281.25	252.00	240.00	235.25	253.25
Low	305.50	288.25	280.00	272.00	238.00	240.50	249.75	233.50	215.00	220.00	210.00	220.50
Close/Last	305.50	290.50	285.75	273.50	257.25	249.75	277.75	252.00	230.25	226.75	227.25	248.75