MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		35	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		13	24	29	21	22	18	17	18	27	22	23
Exceeded High		9	22	22	14	14	14	11	15	20	17	13
Scenario Percentage		69%	92%	76%	67%	64%	78%	65%	83%	74%	77%	57%
Avg Max Increase		8.71%	9.31%	7.90%	8.07%	12.78%	11.74%	11.09%	10.94%	19.50%	17.60%	10.67%
Max Increase		14.97%	33.88%	20.81%	19.12%	39.32%	33.53%	27.06%	22.68%	137.82%	115.34%	21.92%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	16	14	14	13	15	13	16	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-3.25%	-1.80%	-1.82%	-1.62%	-1.36%	-1.80%	-2.19%	-2.40%	-4.32%	-3.60%	-1.37%
Max Decline		-8.81%	-6.49%	-11.62%	-6.45%	-6.35%	-4.30%	-11.43%	-7.63%	-24.10%	-11.86%	-7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	5	9	9	7	10	9	9	11	6	3
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		35	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	19	16	24	23	26	28	27	18	23	22
Penetrated Low		11	13	9	19	18	22	22	16	15	14	10
Scenario Percentage		52%	68%	56%	79%	78%	85%	79%	59%	83%	61%	45%
Avg Max Decline		9.43%	9.24%	8.55%	8.56%	8.15%	8.62%	9.37%	12.08%	10.45%	10.32%	6.16%
Max Decline		35.68%	34.36%	20.04%	16.86%	22.08%	20.60%	19.93%	24.67%	21.82%	29.28%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	13	19	19	17	18	20	20	8	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.34%	-4.01%	-1.93%	-2.62%	-2.46%	-2.06%	-2.63%	-3.73%	-5.50%	-3.92%	-2.11%
Max Increase		-7.04%	-9.40%	-4.87%	-7.40%	-9.29%	-8.50%	-9.83%	-9.12%	-14.18%	-11.57%	-13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	15	7	15	9	5	9	12	16	6	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes				Yes
Action		No					No				Not Yet
High	286.25	271.50	285.00	309.25	319.75	347.00	356.75	370.00	386.25	417.00	423.50	409.25
Low	270.75	255.50	265.75	283.00	298.00	299.50	333.00	334.75	357.50	366.00	350.50	355.50
Close/Last	270.75	270.00	285.00	298.50	299.50	347.00	339.50	360.50	377.75	405.75	377.50	384.00