MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		12	23	27	20	21	18	17	18	27	22	22
Exceeded High		8	20	20	14	13	15	11	15	19	17	12
Scenario Percentage		67%	87%	74%	70%	62%	83%	65%	83%	70%	77%	55%
Avg Max Increase		8.77%	9.17%	7.63%	7.04%	13.25%	11.48%	9.74%	10.73%	20.85%	16.86%	9.46%
Max Increase		14.97%	33.88%	20.81%	16.97%	39.32%	33.53%	27.06%	22.68%	137.82%	115.34%	16.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	14	14	14	12	13	14	17	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-3.40%	-2.01%	-1.97%	-1.58%	-1.16%	-1.76%	-2.15%	-2.66%	-4.50%	-3.59%	-1.36%
Max Decline		-8.81%	-6.49%	-11.62%	-6.45%	-6.35%	-4.30%	-11.43%	-7.63%	-24.10%	-11.86%	-7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	5	9	9	6	9	7	10	12	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	19	17	24	24	26	28	27	18	23	23
Penetrated Low		11	13	10	19	18	23	22	16	15	14	10
Scenario Percentage		55%	68%	59%	79%	75%	88%	79%	59%	83%	61%	43%
Avg Max Decline		9.43%	9.24%	8.58%	8.56%	8.93%	9.02%	9.27%	12.08%	10.45%	10.16%	5.89%
Max Decline		35.68%	34.36%	20.04%	16.86%	22.08%	20.60%	19.93%	24.67%	21.82%	27.68%	11.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	14	19	19	16	18	20	20	8	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.34%	-4.01%	-2.35%	-2.62%	-2.22%	-2.12%	-2.49%	-3.73%	-5.50%	-3.92%	-2.11%
Max Increase		-7.04%	-9.40%	-6.10%	-7.40%	-9.29%	-8.50%	-9.83%	-9.12%	-14.18%	-11.57%	-13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	15	10	15	8	5	8	12	16	6	2
2019 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes				Yes
Action						Yes		Yes				Not Yet
High	256.00	283.75	273.25	293.00	304.50	292.75	293.75	292.50	280.75	301.50	325.00	319.00
Low	247.25	258.25	252.75	270.25	276.50	278.50	275.00	262.25	260.50	269.75	264.00	268.00
Close/Last	256.00	262.75	273.25	275.50	287.00	279.75	283.75	264.00	268.50	288.25	314.50	273.00