MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		26	35	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		9	20	21	16	19	13	14	15	21	18	17
Exceeded High		6	17	14	12	11	11	10	13	14	14	9
Scenario Percentage		67%	85%	67%	75%	58%	85%	71%	87%	67%	78%	53%
Avg Max Increase		9.14%	8.86%	7.58%	5.70%	11.06%	10.60%	10.58%	9.64%	23.46%	17.60%	9.44%
Max Increase		14.97%	33.88%	20.81%	16.97%	39.32%	33.53%	27.06%	22.68%	137.82%	115.34%	16.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	13	15	12	13	11	14	13	15	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-3.31%	-1.75%	-2.13%	-1.75%	-0.91%	-1.61%	-2.00%	-2.70%	-3.75%	-2.68%	-0.90%
Max Decline		-8.81%	-5.37%	-11.62%	-6.45%	-6.35%	-3.46%	-11.43%	-7.63%	-24.10%	-7.86%	-7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	11	7	6	8	8	8	8	4	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No		No				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		26	35	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		16	15	16	21	19	24	24	23	17	20	21
Penetrated Low		8	11	10	16	13	21	18	12	15	14	10
Scenario Percentage		50%	73%	63%	76%	68%	88%	75%	52%	88%	70%	48%
Avg Max Decline		10.30%	10.56%	8.58%	8.01%	9.31%	8.87%	9.54%	13.32%	10.45%	10.16%	5.89%
Max Decline		35.68%	34.36%	20.04%	16.86%	22.08%	20.60%	17.14%	24.67%	21.82%	27.68%	11.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		25	20	14	19	19	16	19	21	20	8	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.69%	-4.05%	-2.35%	-2.40%	-2.54%	-2.19%	-2.05%	-3.66%	-5.50%	-3.92%	-2.11%
Max Increase		-7.04%	-9.40%	-6.10%	-7.40%	-9.29%	-8.50%	-6.95%	-9.12%	-14.18%	-11.57%	-13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	16	10	16	8	5	8	13	16	6	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet
High	395.00	411.00	394.50	365.50	357.50	327.00	320.00	322.25	345.00	347.00	350.00	378.75
Low	371.00	368.50	352.50	338.00	296.25	302.50	284.25	297.00	279.00	322.00	262.25	276.50
Close/Last	381.50	394.50	352.50	357.50	320.00	318.50	297.00	315.00	342.00	345.50	280.75	336.00