MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	23	32	34	34	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher	7	18	18	16	17	12	13	14	20	17	15
Exceeded High	5	15	12	12	9	10	9	12	13	13	8
Scenario Percentage	71%	83%	67%	75%	53%	83%	69%	86%	65%	76%	53%
Avg Max Increase	7.97%	8.32%	8.16%	5.70%	12.46%	10.90%	10.63%	10.25%	24.53%	20.19%	9.19%
Max Increase	13.29%	33.88%	20.81%	16.97%	39.32%	33.53%	27.06%	22.68%	137.82%	115.34%	17.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	13	15	12	14	11	12	14	14	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-2.21%	-1.46%	-1.75%	-1.75%	-0.40%	-1.73%	-0.95%	-2.44%	-2.19%	-2.58%	-1.01%
Max Decline	-3.91%	-5.37%	-11.62%	-6.45%	-2.76%	-3.46%	-4.33%	-7.63%	-7.48%	-7.86%	-7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	6	10	7	5	8	8	7	7	3	2
2009 Contract Condition									Yes	Yes
Action									Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	23	32	34	34	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower	15	14	16	18	18	22	22	21	15	18	20
Penetrated Low	8	10	10	14	12	19	16	11	13	14	11
Scenario Percentage	53%	71%	62%	78%	67%	86%	73%	52%	87%	78%	55%
Avg Max Decline	10.30%	10.02%	8.58%	7.15%	9.19%	8.84%	8.70%	13.32%	10.54%	10.32%	6.84%
Max Decline	35.68%	34.36%	20.04%	12.85%	22.08%	20.60%	17.14%	24.67%	21.82%	29.28%	13.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline	25	20	14	19	19	16	19	21	19	8	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.69%	-4.08%	-2.35%	-2.27%	-2.71%	-1.74%	-1.92%	-3.61%	-5.06%	-3.92%	-2.86%
Max Increase	-7.04%	-9.40%	-6.10%	-7.40%	-9.29%	-8.43%	-6.95%	-9.12%	-12.22%	-11.57%	-13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase	14	17	10	14	8	4	9	14	15	6	3
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes			Not Yet
High	442.00	404.25	362.00	285.25	254.00	250.00	224.50	211.25	212.75	260.00	264.00
Low	402.00	356.50	260.00	234.00	217.50	216.00	178.25	189.25	181.00	197.50	195.50
Close/Last	404.25	356.50	272.00	236.50	228.75	224.50	203.00	202.50	203.00	251.00	214.75