MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	20	21	24	29	19	20	20	17	21	23
Exceeded High		12	15	15	23	20	8	13	16	12	16	13
Scenario Percentage		71%	75%	71%	96%	69%	42%	65%	80%	71%	76%	57%
Avg Max Increase		13.65%	10.49%	11.64%	12.92%	10.41%	9.32%	14.24%	13.46%	11.99%	10.52%	8.42%
Max Increase		30.55%	28.52%	38.40%	36.29%	20.56%	22.42%	53.11%	39.65%	27.04%	23.85%	17.78%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	18	20	17	18	13	12	15	17	14	6
Avg Max Decline		-0.25%	-4.00%	-3.94%	-1.68%	-1.03%	-2.20%	-2.04%	-2.40%	-3.32%	-2.68%	-0.97%
Max Decline		-5.25%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-8.42%	-6.85%	-5.90%	-8.72%	-10.28%	-10.41%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	13	5	6	5	8	8	16	6	1
2023 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes		Yes
Action						No			No		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	25	24	21	15	25	25	24	28	23	22
Penetrated Low		22	17	13	17	12	20	17	21	22	15	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	68%	54%	81%	80%	80%	68%	88%	79%	65%	36%
Avg Max Decline		9.08%	9.63%	8.48%	8.60%	7.58%	8.88%	8.99%	9.58%	10.78%	10.84%	5.38%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	17.68%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	8.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	20	22	17	15	21	17	19	18	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.51%	-2.00%	-3.08%	-4.07%	-3.20%	-2.73%	-3.75%	-2.26%	-3.38%	-3.60%	-1.44%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-7.35%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-5.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	8	8	14	10	13	11	6	8	8	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes		Yes
High	625.25	625.50	484.50	432.25	423.00	411.25	404.25	378.50	390.25	390.25	385.75	368.75
Low	553.00	484.75	408.75	385.00	375.50	370.00	380.00	325.00	333.25	333.50	319.00	298.50
Close/Last	619.75	487.75	433.25	402.75	394.50	398.50	385.00	364.00	387.25	335.00	364.25	302.00